Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 10/17/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX

TV: CW

Odds/Point Spread: Mustangs (-9.5)

Total/Over-Under: 51.5

Gerald J. Ford Stadium is the location where the SMU Mustangs (4-1) will play the Virginia Cavaliers (4-2) on Saturday, October 17, 2026. Virginia opens as 9.5-point dogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is 51.5.

The Virginia Cavaliers step onto the field holding a record of 4-2 for this year. In their last contest, the Cavaliers faced off with the Syracuse Orange and walked away with a win by a score of 28-25. On the day, they had 55 plays which gave them 282 yards. The Virginia Cavaliers ended up running the ball 35 different times and accumulated 169 yds, earning them an average of 4.8 yards per attempt. On the ground, the Cavaliers conceded 163 yds on 47 attempts, which is an average of 3.5 yards per rush allowed. Virginia allowed 18 pass completions on 35 attempts for a total of 267 yds, and a completion rate of 51.4%.

Regarding putting points on the board, the Virginia Cavaliers have an average of 32.8 PPG. As a unit they're averaging 162.8 yards in the run game which is 63rd in the country. The Cavaliers have earned 2,276 yards in total this season. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, Virginia has compiled 17 touchdowns through the air and 9 rushing touchdowns. Virginia has accumulated 133 first downs offensively, and they have been hurt by 32 penalties for 310 yds. They have surrendered the ball 2 different times.

The Cavaliers are sitting in 37th in Division 1 when it comes to their opponents scoring, allowing 19.2 points per game. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 4.0 yards per rush and 151.8 rushing yards per contest on the season. For the year, they have given up 911 yards on the ground through 6 contests. In terms of passing yards, the Cavaliers have given up 971 yards which has them ranked 29th in the nation. They have given up 161.8 yards per game via the pass as well as conceding a completion percentage of 50.2%. In total, they have surrendered 313.7 yards per outing ranking them 35th in D-1. They have surrendered 4 touchdowns by air as well as 10 touchdowns pounding the rock.

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The Mustangs come into this matchup with a record of 4-1 for this season. For their last game, the Mustangs got the victory with a final of 25-16 against the Boston College Eagles. SMU ended up running for 1.8 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 58 yds on 32 attempts. The Mustangs finished the game with a total of 218 yards while running 62 plays (3.5 yards per play). The Mustangs secondary gave up a completion rate of 62.5%, surrendering 208 yards on 20 for 32 passing. SMU relinquished 33 attempts on the ground for 114 yards (3.5 yards per carry).

In relation to putting points on the board, the Mustangs are sitting 47th in college football with 34.6 points per game. The SMU Mustangs maintain an average of 479.2 yards per outing, which has them sitting 14th in college football. The SMU offense has totaled 369 penalty yds on 39 violations, which has them sitting 53rd in D-1 in terms of helping out the opposition. They have thrown 5 interceptions while conceding 4 fumbles and they have been able to obtain 119 1st downs. Over the course of the season to this point, the Mustangs have compiled 1,705 passing yards not to mention an average of 341.0 passing yards per game, ranking them 3rd in the nation. They hold an average of 138.2 yards per game on the ground and have rushed for 691 yards for the year.

SMU has allowed a total of 708 yards on the ground (141.6 yards per game) as well as 6 touchdowns by way of the ground game for the campaign. They have allowed the opposition 8 touchdowns through the air in addition to 170.4 yards/outing, which has them in 24th in the country. Overall, they have allowed 115 pts. Their defense has tallied 3 fumbles and 2 picks on the year. The Mustangs defense has participated in 315 plays, which is 20th in D-1. The Mustangs are surrendering 23.0 points per game, which has them ranked 65th in the nation.

Who will win tonight's Cavaliers/Mustangs college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Mustangs -9.5

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