Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction, 10/1/2026 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs New Mexico State Aggies

Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026

Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, NM

TV: CBSSN

Odds/Point Spread: Aggies (-2.5)

Total/Over-Under: 54.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3) are hitting the road to Aggie Memorial Stadium on Thursday, October 1, 2026 where they will compete against the New Mexico State Aggies (1-3). Western Kentucky opens as 2.5-point dogs. The total comes in at 54.5.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers head into this matchup 1-3 for this season. In their last game, the Hilltoppers took the field against the Mercyhurst Lakers and went home with a win by a final score of 52-7. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ran the ball 34 times and recorded 183 yds, which had them averaging 5.4 yards per carry. On the day, they ran 65 plays which converted into 596 yds. Western Kentucky relinquished 22 completions on 44 attempts for a total of 172 yards, and a completion percentage of 50.0%. Against the run, the Hilltoppers gave up 92 yds on 23 tries, which is an average of 4.0 yards per rush surrendered.

In terms of scoring points, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are averaging 21.5 PPG. As a team they are averaging 130.8 yards rushing ranking them 107th in the nation. The Hilltoppers have attained 1,374 total yards over the course of this season. When it comes to distribution of touchdowns, Western Kentucky has compiled 7 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns. Western Kentucky has recorded 74 first downs, and they have committed 14 infractions for 114 yards. They have surrendered the ball 8 different times.

When it comes to passing yards, the Hilltoppers have allowed 874 yards which ranks them 84th in the country. They have conceded 218.5 yards per outing via the pass and allowed a completion percentage of 60.0%. In total, they are surrendering 439.0 yards per contest which has them ranked 128th in the nation. They have granted 10 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 11 touchdowns pounding the rock. The opposition is running for an average of 6.3 yards per run and 220.5 rushing yards per game for the season. Over the course of this year, they have given up 882 rushing yards through 4 games. The Hilltoppers rank 137th in college football regarding the opposition scoring, giving up 41.0 points per game.

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The Aggies come into this game with a record of 1-3 for this season. For their last game, the Aggies went home defeated by a final of 42-18 against the New Mexico Lobos. New Mexico State ran the football for 4.4 yards per carry, finishing the game with 137 yds on 31 attempts. The Aggies finished with 405 yds while running 69 plays (5.9 yards per play). The Aggies pass defense gave up a completion rate of 58.8%, relinquishing 177 yards on 10 out of 17 passing. New Mexico State allowed 47 run attempts for 253 yards (5.4 yards per rush).

The New Mexico State Aggies maintain an average of 414.5 yards/game, which has them sitting 64th in the nation. The New Mexico State offense has accrued 230 penalty yds on 28 violations, which ranks them 56th in D-1 in terms of helping out the opposition. They have an average of 136.0 yards per game via the rush and have toted the ball for 544 yards in total. They have given away 5 picks while letting opponents recover 2 fumbles and they have been able to tally 83 first downs. Concerning this team's ability to score points, the Aggies rank 90th in the nation holding an average of 26.3 points per contest. During the season so far, the Aggies have earned 1,114 yards through the air together with holding an average of 278.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the nation.

The Aggies are conceding 29.8 points per game, which puts them 114th in Division 1. New Mexico State has allowed the opposition a total of 607 yards rushing (151.8 yards per game) and 11 touchdowns rushing this year. They have allowed 4 touchdowns through the air and 224.8 yards per outing, which has them in 92nd in college football. The Aggies defense has taken the field for 260 plays, which is good for 76th in the country. Their defense has compiled 1 fumble recovered and 3 interceptions on the year. Over the course of the season, they have allowed 119 total points.

Who will win tonight's Hilltoppers/Aggies college football game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Hilltoppers +2.5

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