Heat at Warriors Picks and NBA Betting Odds
by Dave Schwab - 1/16/2013
The Miami Heat will play Game 5 of a six-game road trip this Wednesday night with a stop at Oakland’s Oracle Arena to square off against the Golden State Warriors in the second of a two-game season series. This matchup is set to tip off at 10:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Miami remains at the top of the standings in the Eastern Conference at 24-12, but it is now just 8-9 straight up on the road this season after Monday night’s 104-97 loss to Utah as a 2.5-point favorite. The Heat are now 4-6 SU and 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games and 1-3 both ways on this current six-game road trip. The total has stayed “under” in four of their last six games.
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The Warriors have just one SU victory in their last four games and are 0-4 ATS, but they are playing at home where they have won six of their last eight and are 12-5 SU (10-7 ATS) on the year. They are 23-13 SU (20-15-1 ATS) overall and the total has gone “over” in four of their last five games.
Heat at Warriors Betting Storylines
Miami’s woes on the road this season may have been compounded on Monday night when head coach Erik Spoelstra’s decided to sit Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh during his team’s furious comeback attempt from a 20-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter. This might have simply been an effort to shake up the lineup, but it remains a situation that bears watching as the Heat try and salvage a couple of wins before heading home.
The other subplot for Wednesday night is LeBron James’ quest for his 20,000th NBA point. He scored 32 against the Jazz to close within 18 points of this milestone. James continues to lead the team across the board with 26 points, 8.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game. Miami is averaging 102.4 points a game while giving up 97.4.
Despite Golden State’s recent slide, it remains a solid team with some quality talent throughout the entire roster. Stephen Curry is averaging a team-high 20.5 points, 6.6 assists and 1.6 steals a game, and David Lee is chipping in another 19.9 points while leading the team in rebounds with 10.9 a game. This duo has a strong supporting cast in starter Klay Thompson and Carl Landry and Jarrett Jack coming off the bench. These three have combined to average close to 40 points a game this season.
The Warriors are also one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA with an average of 101.1 points a game and they are ranked fifth in the league in rebounds with 45.2. The only reason they have not won more games this season is a defensive effort that is ranked in the bottom-third of the league in points allowed (99.4).
Heat vs. Warriors NBA Betting Odds and Trends
The opening line on BetOnline has Miami as a two-point road favorite with the “over/under” line set at 205.
The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games with just one day’s rest and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road. The total has gone over in three of their last five road games.
The Warriors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Southeast Division. The total has gone over in seven of their last 11 games at home.
Head-to-head in this matchup, the underdog has covered in six of the last eight meetings and the total has gone over in eight of the last 11 games. Golden State struck first blood in this season’s two-game series with a 97-95 victory as an 8.5-point road underdog in mid-December. It was its second-straight win over Miami dating back to last season.
Heat vs. Warriors Picks and Betting Predictions
Oracle Arena will be a tough place for Miami to work out its issues on the road, especially with some potential trouble brewing between the head coach and two-thirds of the Big Three. The Heat will turn James loose on Wednesday night, as he should easily eclipse the 20,000-point plateau, but the play remains on Golden State as it extends its winning streak over Miami to three.
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