Rockets at Warriors Picks and NBA Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 2/12/2013
Tuesday’s game in Oakland between Houston and Golden State should be very interesting, and you can bet that the NBA’s enforcement staff will be keeping a close eye on it.
When these two met last Tuesday in Houston, the Rockets won 140-109 (their most points since 1995) thanks to an NBA record-tying 23 made three-pointers (and NBA-record 14 in the first half). Nine different Rockets made one overall, led by Jeremy Lin’s career-high five (he had a game-high 28 points). Ironically, Houston’s top three-point threat, Carlos Delfino, missed the game with an injury (he’s back now). The 140 points was an NBA season high as was Houston’s 77 at the half.
The big news from that game happened in the final minute with the crowd chanting “one more three!” to set the record. Apparently Warriors coach Mark Jackson heard them because he started having his players foul the Rockets intentionally before they could even get an attempt off. There was nearly a fight at one point. Jackson defended his actions, saying: "We're not going to lie down. I was an old-school basketball player. I'm an old-school coach. If you can't appreciate that, that's on you. If you're going to try to get the record, we're going to stop you. ... I would expect nothing less if I was on the other side."
According to the Houston Chronicle, late in the game official Eric Lewis overheard Jackson tell his players to “run through” the Rockets rather than let them shoot. Lewis warned Rockets assistant coaches and asked that they not take more three-pointers. Things really got heated when Golden State’s Draymond Green committed a flagrant foul on Houston’s Patrick Beverley as Beverley was attempting a late three. Houston’s Marcus Morris confronted Green, and both were ejected. Houston coach Kevin McHale said he really didn’t have a problem with Jackson ordering his players to do what they did. McHale is pretty old school as well.
Rockets at Warriors Betting Story Lines
Golden State will be glad to get home, as it lost all four games on its road trip by an average of 20.7 points. In three of them, the Warriors allowed at least 116 points. They were clearly gassed on Saturday in the second of a back-to-back in Dallas as the Mavs rolled, 116-91. Dallas used a 14-0 first-quarter run to take a lead it would never relinquish. Golden State had been 2-0 vs. Dallas this year. Here’s the sign of a tired team: Golden State was outscored 29-8 on the fast break. Golden State allowed at least 60 points in the first half of all four losses on the trip.
The Rockets have gone 1-2 in three games since last Tuesday’s matchup, not scoring less than 108 points but allowing an average of 111.3 in losses at Miami and Sacramento sandwiched around a home win against Portland. Houston blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead Sunday to the Kings. Harden had 30 points in that one and is on fire, averaging 33.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists and shooting 63.5 percent (33-of-52) from the field and 52.6 percent (10-of-19) from three-point range in those three games. Those are LeBron James-type numbers.
Injury-wise, Harden didn’t practice Monday because of a sore knee he injured Sunday and is being called day-to-day. I’d be stunned if he doesn’t play as Harden didn’t miss any time Sunday and has sat just one game this season. Backup point guard Toney Douglas has played a total of two minutes in the past two games because of a hip injury and is “iffy” for this one. Beverley got more time Sunday and had a solid line of six points, eight assists and five rebounds in 19 minutes. He was called for taunting late in that last meeting, so if someone is going to be on the wrong end of a hard foul, it probably will be Beverley.
For Golden State, backup point guard Jarrett Jack sat out practice Monday and is questionable. He has missed three straight games. That essentially means Stephen Curry will log heavy minutes and end-of-rotation guards like Charles Jenkins and Kent Bazemore will see a bit more time. Center Andrew Bogut sat out Sunday against Dallas, but that’s only because the team is being cautious with the Aussie in the second of a back-to-back. There’s no reason he shouldn’t play in this one.
Rockets at Warriors NBA Betting Odds and Key Trends
At WagerWeb, Golden State is an opening 4.5-point favorite with the total at 221. The Rockets are 28-24-1 ATS (11-15-1 on road) and 30-23 “over/under” (14-13 on road). The Warriors are 27-23-1 ATS (13-9 at home) and 32-18-1 O/U (13-8-1 at home).
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its past six Tuesday games. It is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 following an ATS loss. Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its past six games following a loss of at least 10 points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Houston’s past four. The over is 6-0 in Golden State’s past six after allowing at least 100 points in the previous game. The favorite is 8-1 in the past nine meetings.
Rockets at Warriors Picks and Betting Predictions
The total for the last matchup was 217, which I thought was crazy high. Yet it still wasn’t close to going under. I simply can’t recommend an over 221 points, however. I actually think the Warriors will play much better defensively after being embarrassed last week. I know Golden State has lost 15 of the past 17 meetings, but they are a vastly different club at home as Houston is on the road. Take the Warriors and the under.
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