Warriors at Spurs Picks and NBA Betting Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 1/18/2013
This game isn’t as interesting as it should be — not since Wednesday afternoon. That’s when Golden State star Stephen Curry stepped on a teammate’s foot in a shootaround and sprained his right ankle. He missed Wednesday night’s bad loss to Miami, and he will very likely be out on Friday night as well. That is a big handicap for the Warriors as they look to end a 16-game losing streak to the Spurs, and a 28-game skid in San Antonio — a road losing streak that stretches almost 16 years. In other words, the last time the Warriors won in San Antonio, Tim Duncan was still in college.
The Warriors have dropped four of their last five, and they are just 10-31 in the last two years when Curry doesn’t play. The Spurs are a league best 17-2 at home. So, why is this game even remotely worth writing about? Well, the Spurs are favored by 12 points — the most they have been in the last eight meetings. That’s a lot of points in the NBA, and, even without Curry, this is a better Golden State team than we have been used to seeing. On a day that lacks a true barn burner of a matchup, I’m drawn to this one just because I want to see if a bet on the huge underdog can be justified. I’m a sucker for a lovable loser.
Warriors at Spurs Betting storylines
Missing Curry is a big blow for the Warriors, but the Spurs have an injury issue as well. Manu Ginobli has strained his left hamstring, and he will be out for as much as two weeks. While that hurts, it’s not nearly the blow it would have been a few years ago. Ginobli is averaging 12.9 points per game. That’s the same as last year, but is 4.5 points down from the year before. The Argentinean turned 35 last summer. And though he is far from a liability, he’s not the player he was. He has missed one game and half of another so far with this injury, and they have won and covered both — including a 12.5-point spread at home against Minnesota in the game in which he was hurt.
In Curry’s absence Jarrett Jack gets the start. Last game was his first start of the year, but he handled himself very well — 16 points to lead the team. He’s obviously not as explosive or dynamic as Curry is, but the 30 year old is no slouch, either. He averaged 15.6 points per game last year for the Hornets, he can dish assists, and he doesn’t commit a lot of turnovers. Things could be worse for the Warriors. If and when the Warriors lose this one, it isn’t likely to be the fault of Jack.
If the Warriors want to have any chance at all in this one, they need to find a way to contain Tony Parker. San Antonio’s point guard has eaten the Warriors alive recently — he has averaged 23.8 points and 9.8 assists per game in the last five meetings between the teams. He’s leading his team in scoring this year and has had a hot touch lately, so he’s clearly a threat in this game as well. Golden State should watch some Knicks’ game tape to get ready for this one. New York has done by far the best job of containing Parker recently as they held him to just 11 points in an easy 17 point victory early in the month.
Warriors at Spurs NBA Odds and Betting Trends
The Spurs are, as I said, favored by a dozen points. The total sits at 203.5.
The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, and 0-5 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning record. The last five Spurs games have gone “under” the total, and they have also gone under in their last four as favorites of 11 points or more.
Warriors at Spurs Picks and Betting Predictions
I just can’t do it. I would love to be able to justify taking the points here, but I have too many doubts. Golden State is in a slump, and they have matchup issues — even more than they usually do against the Spurs. San Antonio has won their last two by at least 18 points, so they are feeling good, and they have been great at home. It’s a lot of points, but not too many. The Spurs are the pick.
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