Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction, 6/7/2023 Preview and Pick
Game: Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat
Date: Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL
Odds/Point Spread: Denver (-2)
The Miami Heat are hosting the Denver Nuggets at Kaseya Center on Wednesday in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. The series is tied 1-1. Denver opens this game as 2-point favorites. The betting total comes in at 214.5.
The Nuggets walked away from Game 2 with a loss by a score of 111-108. Denver wrapped up the contest with a 52.0% field goal percentage (39 out of 75) and knocked down 11 of 28 three-point shots. From the free throw line, the Nuggets converted 19 of their 22 tries for a rate of 86.4%. When discussing getting rebounds, they compiled 38 with 9 of them being offensive. They also recorded 23 assists for this game while forcing the other team into 11 turnovers and having 7 steals. When talking about defending, Denver allowed their opponent to shoot 48.7% from the field on 38 out of 78 shooting. Miami distributed 28 assists and had 5 steals for this contest. In addition, Miami snagged 31 rebounds (8 offensive, 23 defensive) and added 2 rejections. Miami finished 90.0% from the free throw line by making 18 of 20 shots. They also converted 17 of their 35 shots from three-point range. In relation to personal fouls, the Nuggets ended up finishing with 21 and the Heat accumulated 22 personal fouls.
Nikola Jokic is a player who was a major factor for the matchup. He ended up scoring 41 points on 16 of 28 shooting. He played 42 minutes played and snagged 11 boards. Jokic walked away from this one shooting 57.1% from the floor and also distributed 4 dimes.
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Denver enters this matchup with a win-loss mark of 53-29 this season. They have an average of 115.8 points per contest (12th in the NBA) while shooting 50.4% from the field. The Nuggets are connecting on 37.9% on 3-pointers (969 of 2,559) and 75.1% from the free throw line. As a unit, Denver is pulling in 43.0 boards per contest and has 2,368 assists so far this year, which is 2nd in basketball in terms of passing the rock. They lose possession by turning the ball over 14.5 times per contest and as a team they commit 18.6 personal fouls every game.
On defense, the Nuggets are able to force 13.5 turnovers per game while drawing 19.5 fouls. They are conceding 34.4% on shots from beyond the arc while they are 8th in the league in points per game allowed (112.5). The Nuggets defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 47.8% (3,423 of 7,166) and they concede 40.8 boards per game as a team. They are ranked 16th in the NBA in giving up assists with 2,105 relinquished this year.
In reference to how they rebounded in Game 2, Miami permitted Denver to snag 38 in total (9 offensive). They finished the game shooting 39.3% from distance by shooting 11 of 28 and ended up shooting 19 of 22 from the free throw line (86.4%). The Heat permitted the Nuggets to knock down 39 of 75 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 52.0% for the matchup. When this game wrapped up, the Heat shot 38 for 78 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 48.7%. In the matter of shooting from beyond the arc, Miami buried 17 out of 35 tries (48.6%). They were able to bury 18 of those for a percentage of 90.0%. The Nuggets were called for 21 fouls for this game which got the Heat to the free throw line for a total of 20 shots. They turned it over 11 times, while recording 5 steals in this matchup. The Heat collected 23 defensive boards and 8 offensive rebounds for a total of 31 for the game.
Gabe Vincent was important for the Heat in this contest. He converted 8 of 12 in this game giving him a field goal percentage of 66.7%, but wasn't able to grab a board. Vincent racked up 23 points in his 32 mins on the hardwood and had 3 assists for the matchup.
Miami has a win-loss record of 44-38 this year. The Heat are responsible for committing 18.5 fouls per game and they connect on 83.1% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 23.8 times per game (25th in the league) and they are losing possession via turnover 13.5 times per game. Miami has scored 8,977 pts for the season (109.5 per game) and they snag 40.6 boards per contest. When it comes to offensive execution, the Heat are hitting on 46.0% from the field, which has them ranked 26th in the NBA.
The Miami defense allows 36.7% on shots from beyond the arc (1,077 of 2,933) and their opponents are knocking down 78.1% of their foul shots. They concede 25.6 assists and 41.8 rebounds every game, which has them ranked 14th and 6th in basketball. The Heat on the defensive side of the court are 2nd in the league in PPG surrendered with 109.8. They are forcing 15.7 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 48.2% from the floor (22nd in the league).
Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Denver (-2)
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