Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, 5/11/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers

Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025

Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Cleveland (-5.0)

Gainbridge Fieldhouse is the location where the Indiana Pacers (50-32) will try to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) on Sunday in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Indiana leads the series 2-1. Indiana opens this game as 5-point underdogs. The total is set at 230.

The Cavaliers earned the victory with a final of 126-104 in Game 3. In the matter of personal fouls, the Cavaliers ended up with 26 and the Pacers racked up 29 personal fouls. They also converted 9 out of their 30 shots from distance. Indiana finished 73.5% from the free throw line by making 25 of their 34 tries. Additionally, Indiana snagged 37 rebounds (4 offensive, 33 defensive) and had 7 blocks. Indiana totaled 26 dimes and had 6 steals for the matchup. In terms of defense, Cleveland allowed the other team to shoot 43.8% from the field on 35 of 80 shooting. They also doled out 24 assists in the game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers and having 5 steals. In regard to hauling in rebounds, they earned 56 with 18 of them being of the offensive sort. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Cavaliers converted 28 of 37 attempts for a percentage of 75.7%. Cleveland wrapped up the contest having earned a 42.0% FG percentage (42 out of 100) and buried 14 of their 47 3-point attempts.

Donovan Mitchell is a player who came through in this contest. Mitchell finished the game shooting 48.3% from the field and totaled 5 dimes. He was on the hardwood for 37 minutes and also pulled down 9 boards. He notched 43 points on 14 out of 29 shooting.

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Cleveland enters this matchup with a win-loss mark of 64-18 on the season. They are losing possession via turnover 13.2 times per game and as a team are committing 18.1 personal fouls every game. As a unit, Cleveland is collecting 45.4 rebounds per game and has racked up 2,304 dimes so far this season, which has them ranked 9th in the league in terms of passing the ball. The Cavaliers are connecting on 38.3% on shots from 3-point land (1,303 of 3,401) and 77.6% from the free throw line. They have an average of 121.9 points per outing (1st in the NBA) while going 49.1% from the field.

When they are on the defensive end, the Cavaliers are forcing 14.5 turnovers per game and they draw 18.9 fouls. They currently rank 8th in the league in giving up assists with 2,101 surrendered on the season. The Cavaliers defensively are allowing a field goal percentage of 45.4% (3,382 of 7,454) and they relinquish 43.5 rebounds per game as a team. They give up 35.9% on 3-point attempts and they are 12th in the league in PPG from their opponents (112.4).

In Game 3, the Pacers snagged 33 defensive rebounds and 4 offensive boards for a total of 37 in the game. They coughed up the ball 13 times, while getting 6 steals for this contest. The Cavaliers committed 26 personal fouls for this game which got the Pacers to the free throw line for a total of 34 tries. They were able to bury 25 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 73.5%. When talking about shooting from distance, Indiana buried 9 out of their 30 tries (30.0%). When the final whistle blew, the Pacers shot 35 out of 80 from the field which gave them a percentage of 43.8%. The Pacers allowed the Cavaliers to convert 42 of their 100 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 42.0% for the contest. They went 29.8% from three-point range by going 14 out of 47 and ended up going 28 out of 37 from the charity stripe (75.7%). When it comes to rebounds, Indiana permitted Cleveland to pull down 56 in total (18 on the offensive side).

Bennedict Mathurin ended up being a factor for the Pacers in this game. He knocked down 6 of 11 for this game for a field goal rate of 54.5%, and accounted for 1 rebound. Mathurin earned 23 points in his 27 mins on the court, but wasn't able to earn an assist.

Indiana has a record of 50-32 on the year. When it comes to offensive execution, the Pacers are hitting on 48.8% from the floor, which is ranked 3rd in the league. Indiana has accounted for 9,624 points on the year (117.4 per game) and they grab 41.8 boards per game. They are getting an assist 29.2 times per contest (3rd in the league) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 13.2 times per game. The Pacers have committed 18.7 fouls per game and they go 78.9% from the charity stripe.

The Indiana defense allows 35.5% on shots from behind the 3-point line (1,058 of 2,978) and their opposition knocks down 77.3% of their shots from the free throw line. They concede 26.0 assists and 45.0 rebounds every game, which is ranked 12th and 22nd in the league. The Pacers are ranked 17th in the league in points per game surrendered with 115.1. They are able to force 15.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 47.4% from the floor (23rd in the NBA).

So what is Tonights Parlay prediction?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Indiana (+5.0)

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