Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, 12/25/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors

Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025

Location: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Dallas (+8.5)

Chase Center is where the Golden State Warriors (15-15) will meet the Dallas Mavericks (12-19) on Thursday. Dallas opens this contest as 8.5-point dogs from oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 227.

The Mavericks stepped onto the hardwood against the Nuggets and took home the win by a score of 131-130 in their last game. Concerning personal fouls, the Mavericks finished with 12 and the Nuggets finished the game with 16 personal fouls. They made 20 out of their 41 tries from beyond the arc. Denver ended up going 100.0% at the charity stripe by making 10 of their 10 tries. Furthermore, Denver pulled down 34 boards (7 offensive, 27 defensive) and had 2 blocks. Denver doled out 39 dimes and had 8 steals in the game. In terms of defense, Dallas allowed the other team to shoot 57.5% from the field on 50 out of 87 shooting. They also recorded 34 assists for the game as well as forcing the other team into 15 turnovers and having 9 steals. When discussing hauling in boards, they earned 36 with 11 of them being offensive. At the charity stripe, the Mavericks converted 14 of their 15 attempts for a percentage of 93.3%. Dallas ended the contest having earned a 57.0% FG percentage (53 of 93) and buried 11 of 27 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Cooper Flagg is someone who had an impact for this contest. Flagg walked away from this one shooting 66.7% from the floor and distributed 9 dimes. He saw the court for 40 minutes and also pulled down 9 boards. He notched 33 points on 14 out of 21 shooting.

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Dallas enters this contest with a record of 12-19 for the campaign. They are averaging 113.6 pts per contest (23rd in the league) while hitting 46.6% from the field. The Mavericks are shooting 33.4% from downtown (341 of 1,021) and 76.0% from the free throw line. As a unit, Dallas is pulling in 44.5 rebounds per game and has accounted for 785 dimes on the season, which ranks 14th in the league in terms of passing the rock. They lose possession via turnover 15.5 times per contest and as a team they commit 20.5 fouls on a nightly basis.

When they are on the defensive end, the Mavericks are forcing 14.0 turnovers every game while drawing 21.5 fouls. They are currently ranked 23rd in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 818 surrendered this season. The Mavericks defense is giving up a field goal percentage of 46.2% (1,338 of 2,897) and they surrender 47.6 rebounds per game as a basketball team. They are giving up 33.1% from 3-point land while they are 18th in the NBA in PPG allowed (117.4).

The last time they took the court, the Warriors took home the win by a final score of 120-97 when they faced the Magic. The Warriors recorded 33 defensive rebounds and 14 offensive boards totaling 47 for this game. They also turned the ball over 13 times, while earning 8 steals in this contest. The Magic earned 21 personal fouls for this game which got the Warriors to the free throw line for a total of 24 attempts. They were able to convert 17 of them for a percentage of 70.8%. In terms of three-point shots, Golden State buried 11 of 37 attempts (29.7%). When the game finished, the Warriors went 46 for 89 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 51.7%. The Warriors permitted the Magic to convert 36 of their 87 tries from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 41.4% for this contest. They finished shooting 25.9% from beyond the arc by hitting 7 out of 27 and finished the contest at 18 out of 26 at the free throw line (69.2%). Regarding attacking the glass, Golden State permitted Orlando to snag 48 in total (16 offensive).

Stephen Curry ended up being a factor for the Warriors for the contest. He converted 10 out of 23 in the matchup for a field goal percentage of 43.5%, and accumulated 3 rebounds. Curry earned 26 points in his 31 minutes on the court and had 6 dimes for the game.

Golden State has a mark of 15-15 on the season. The Warriors are responsible for committing 20.9 fouls per contest while shooting 81.3% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 27.8 times per contest (8th in basketball) and they turn the ball over 16.2 times per game. Golden State has earned 3,425 points this season (114.2 per contest) and they pull in 43.8 boards per game. As an offensive team, the Warriors are shooting 45.2% from the field, which is ranked 26th in the NBA.

The Golden State defense allows 34.0% on shots from 3-point land (361 of 1,062) and opponents are making 80.2% of their free throw shots. They concede 25.4 dimes and 45.2 rebounds on a nightly basis, which ranks them 10th and 21st in basketball. The Warriors defensively are ranked 4th in basketball in points allowed per contest with 112.3. They are forcing their opponents into 15.9 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 45.9% from the floor (6th in the league).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Dallas (+8.5)

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