Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 12/5/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Friday, December 5, 2025

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: Prime Video

The Dallas Mavericks (8-15) are en route to Paycom Center on Friday where they will go up against the Oklahoma City Thunder (21-1).

The Mavericks took the court against the Heat and went home with a win by a final score of 118-108 in their last game. Dallas wrapped up the contest having earned a 50.5% field goal percentage (46 out of 91) and buried 16 of 32 3-point attempts. From the charity stripe, the Mavericks buried 10 of their 12 tries for a percentage of 83.3%. With respect to hauling in rebounds, they compiled 50 with 10 of them being on the offensive end. They also dished out 31 assists for this game while forcing the opposition into 11 turnovers and having 6 steals. In relation to defense, Dallas allowed 39.6% from the floor on 40 of 101 shooting. Miami doled out 29 assists and had 11 steals for this game. Furthermore, Miami collected 41 boards (14 offensive, 27 defensive) and earned 7 blocks. Miami went 94.4% at the charity stripe by knocking down 17 of their 18 tries. They also made 11 out of their 37 attempts from three-point range. When it comes to personal fouls, the Mavericks finished with 15 while the Heat accounted for 13 personal fouls.

Cooper Flagg is a guy who was a major contributor for the contest. He was able to score 22 points on 9 of 13 shooting. He played 31 minutes and also collected 6 boards. Flagg ended up going 69.2% from the field and totaled 2 assists.

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Dallas enters this one with a record of 8-15 on the year. They turn the ball over 15.8 times per contest and as a unit are committing 21.0 personal fouls every game. As a unit, Dallas is snagging 44.9 rebounds per game and has accounted for 569 dimes on the campaign, which is 15th in basketball in terms of passing the rock. The Mavericks are hitting 33.6% on shots from beyond the arc (270 of 803) and 75.6% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 111.4 pts per game (27th in the NBA) while connecting on 45.2% from the floor.

Defensively, the Mavericks are forcing 14.2 turnovers every game and they draw 21.8 personal fouls. They are 17th in the NBA in allowing assists to the opposition with 587 conceded for the campaign. The Mavericks are giving up a field goal percentage of 45.6% (973 of 2,135) and they relinquish 48.3 rebounds per contest as a team. They surrender 32.6% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 12th in the league in opponents points per game (115.7).

The last time they took the court, the Thunder walked away with a victory by a final of 124-112 when they faced the Warriors. The Thunder pulled down 37 defensive boards and 4 offensive boards for a total of 41 for the contest. They also turned the ball over 15 times, while recording 8 steals in the game. The Warriors earned 22 fouls in this game which took the Thunder to the charity stripe for a total of 23 tries. They were able to make 17 of the free throw tries for a clip of 73.9%. In reference to 3-point shots, Oklahoma City converted 15 of their 32 attempts (46.9%). Overall, the Thunder ended up shooting 46 out of 79 from the floor which had them shooting 58.2%. The Thunder permitted the Warriors to convert 43 of their 95 tries from the field which had them shooting 45.3% in this matchup. They wrapped up this game 42.9% from behind the 3-point line by hitting 18 of 42 and ended up shooting 8 out of 10 from the free throw line (80.0%). Concerning team rebounding, Oklahoma City permitted Golden State to get 43 overall (12 offensive).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was important for the Thunder for this contest. Gilgeous-Alexander racked up 38 points in his 36 mins on the court and accounted for 4 assists in this matchup. He buried 13 out of 21 for this contest for a rate of 61.9%, and accounted for 3 rebounds.

Oklahoma City has a win-loss record of 21-1 on the year. The Thunder have committed 21.1 personal fouls per game and they hit 83.7% from the free throw line. They are assisting teammates 26.1 times per game (13th in the league) and they cough up possession 12.8 times per contest. Oklahoma City has scored 2,690 points so far this season (122.3 per contest) and they pull in 44.8 rebounds per game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Thunder are hitting on 49.1% from the field, which is ranked 5th in the NBA.

The Oklahoma City defense gives up 36.8% on shots from behind the 3-point line (318 of 864) and opponents are knocking down 76.6% of their free throw shots. They allow 23.6 dimes and 44.0 rebounds on a nightly basis, which ranks them 2nd and 15th in basketball. The Thunder on the defensive end are ranked 1st in the NBA in points allowed per contest with 107.0. They are forcing their opponents into 18.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 42.4% from the floor (1st in the league).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Oklahoma City

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