Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 5/5/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Monday, May 5, 2025

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Denver (+9.0)

The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) will play the Denver Nuggets (50-32) at Paycom Center on Monday in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Denver opens this matchup as 9-point dogs. The over/under has been set at 225.

The Nuggets stepped onto the hardwood against the Clippers and walked away with a win by a score of 120-101 to win their 1st round series in 7 games. When it comes to fouls, the Nuggets ended up finishing with 23 while the Clippers had 17 fouls. They also knocked down 8 out of their 27 shots from distance. Los Angeles walked away from this one shooting 68.2% when shooting free throws by knocking down 15 of their 22 shots. In addition, Los Angeles pulled down 36 boards (5 offensive, 31 defensive) and earned 4 blocks. Los Angeles distributed 30 dimes and had 10 steals in this contest. When it comes to defense, Denver allowed their opponent to shoot 47.6% from the floor on 39 out of 82 shooting. They also distributed 24 assists in the matchup while forcing the other team into 15 turnovers and getting 11 steals. In the matter of grabbing rebounds, they earned 46 with 11 of them being of the offensive sort. From the charity stripe, the Nuggets made 15 of their 21 tries for a rate of 71.4%. Denver wrapped up the game having earned a 52.2% FG percentage (47 out of 90) and made 11 of 29 three-point attempts.

Aaron Gordon is one player who was a major contributor in this contest. He scored 22 points on 9 out of 16 shooting. He saw the court for 36 minutes and also snagged 4 rebounds. Gordon finished 56.3% from the field and also dished out 5 assists.

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Denver heads into this game with a record of 50-32 for the year. They average 120.8 points per outing (3rd in the league) while connecting on 50.6% from the field. The Nuggets are hitting 37.6% on shots from 3-point land (984 of 2,619) and 77.0% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Denver is snagging 45.7 boards per game and has earned 2,542 assists this season, which is 1st in the NBA in terms of passing. They are turning it over 14.3 times per game and as a team are committing 17.6 fouls every game.

On the defensive end of the court, the Nuggets are forcing 13.0 turnovers every game while drawing 19.0 fouls. They give up 36.5% on 3-point shots while they are 25th in the league in opponents points per game (116.9). The Nuggets defensively are giving up a shooting percentage of 46.6% (3,554 of 7,629) and they surrender 42.5 boards per contest as a group. They are ranked 29th in basketball in giving up assists to their opponents with 2,379 conceded on the campaign.

When they last stepped on the court, the Thunder went home victorious with a score of 117-115 against the Grizzlies to sweep that series. The Thunder were able to pull down 21 defensive boards and 12 offensive rebounds for a total of 33 in this matchup. They also turned it over 8 times, while getting 13 steals for the matchup. The Grizzlies had 32 fouls for this contest which took the Thunder to the free throw line for 35 shots. They were able to bury 28 of them for a rate of 80.0%. Pertaining to shots from downtown, Oklahoma City made 7 out of their 35 attempts (20.0%). When the final whistle blew, the Thunder ended up going 41 out of 94 from the floor which had them shooting 43.6%. The Thunder permitted the Grizzlies to convert 37 of 80 tries from the field which had them shooting 46.3% for the matchup. They finished 38.7% from three-point range by going 12 out of 31 and walked away from this one shooting 29 out of 30 at the charity stripe (96.7%). In the matter of rebounds, Oklahoma City permitted Memphis to snag 51 overall (10 offensive).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pitched in for the Thunder in this contest. He knocked down 13 of 24 for this contest giving him a rate of 54.2%, and had 5 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander accumulated 38 points in his 38 minutes on the hardwood and totaled 6 dimes in the game.

Oklahoma City has a win-loss record of 68-14 on the year. The Thunder have committed 19.9 fouls every game and they go 81.9% from the charity stripe. Their rate of earning assists is at 26.9 times per contest (12th in the NBA) and they turn it over 11.7 times per contest. Oklahoma City has accumulated 9,881 pts this season (120.5 per contest) and they pull down 44.8 rebounds per game. As an offense, the Thunder are shooting 48.2% from the floor, which is 7th in the league.

The Thunder on the defensive end are ranked 3rd in basketball in points given up per game with 107.6. They are forcing their opponents into 17.0 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 43.6% from the field (1st in the league). The Oklahoma City defense surrenders 34.2% on shots from beyond the perimeter (1,104 of 3,225) and opponents are connecting on 77.4% of their shots from the charity stripe. They relinquish 24.6 dimes and 44.9 boards per game, which is ranked 4th and 20th in the NBA.

So what is Tonights Parlay prediction?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Oklahoma City (-9.0) and over 225 points

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