Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 10/21/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Houston (+7.5)

The Houston Rockets (52-30 last year) are on their way to Paycom Center on Tuesday where they will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 last season). Oklahoma City opens this matchup as 7.5-point favorites. The betting total comes in at 227.5.

The Rockets faced off with the Warriors and went home with a loss by a final score of 103-89 in their last game. Regarding personal fouls, the Rockets ended up finishing with 14 and the Warriors finished the game with 14 personal fouls. They also made 18 of 43 tries from 3-point land. Golden State walked away from this one shooting 77.8% at the charity stripe by knocking down 7 of 9 tries. Moreover, Golden State collected 38 boards (3 offensive, 35 defensive) and added 5 rejections. Golden State doled out 24 dimes and had 6 steals in the matchup. When it comes to defending, Houston let their opponent shoot 47.6% from the floor on 39 out of 82 shooting. They also doled out 14 assists for the contest as well as forcing 7 turnovers and having 5 steals. In terms of grabbing rebounds, they earned 52 with 14 of them being of the offensive variety. From the free throw line, the Rockets made 15 of their 21 attempts for a rate of 71.4%. Houston finished the game with a 40.5% FG percentage (34 out of 84) and buried 6 out of their 18 three-point shots.

Amen Thompson is a player who was a major contributor in the matchup. He recorded 24 points on 9 out of 16 shooting. He was on the court for 37 mins played and totaled 9 boards. Thompson ended up going 56.3% from the field and totaled 3 assists.

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Houston comes into this one after finishing with a record of 52-30 last season. They lost possession via turnover 13.9 times per game and as a basketball team committed 19.0 fouls per contest. As a squad, Houston snagged 48.5 rebounds per game and earned 1,914 assists last season, which had them ranked 28th in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. The Rockets connected on 35.3% on three-point attempts (1,038 of 2,938) and 73.8% from the free throw line. They averaged 114.3 points per game (14th in basketball) while shooting 45.5% from the floor.

Defensively, the Rockets were able to force 14.3 turnovers every game while drawing 19.2 fouls. They were ranked 2nd in the league in giving up assists to the opposition with 1,926 conceded last year. The Rockets gave up a field goal percentage of 45.9% (3,322 of 7,244) and they surrendered 42.1 rebounds per contest as a basketball team. They relinquished 35.7% from 3-point land and they were ranked 6th in the NBA in PPG allowed (109.8).

In their last game, the Thunder took home the win by a final score of 103-91 when they played the Pacers. The Thunder were able to collect 27 defensive rebounds and 13 offensive boards for a total of 40 for this contest. They also coughed up the ball 8 times, while earning 14 steals in the game. The Pacers committed 24 personal fouls for the matchup which got the Thunder to the free throw line for 31 tries. They were able to knock down 22 of the free throws for a rate of 71.0%. When discussing shots from beyond the perimeter, Oklahoma City knocked down 11 out of 40 attempts (27.5%). When this game wrapped up, the Thunder ended up shooting 35 out of 87 from the field which gave them a rate of 40.2%. The Thunder permitted the Pacers to convert 29 of 70 tries from the floor which had them at 41.4% for the matchup. They went 39.3% from 3-point land by connecting on 11 out of 28 and ended up shooting 22 of 29 at the free throw line (75.9%). Regarding team rebounding, Oklahoma City allowed Indiana to collect 45 overall (12 offensive).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was important for the Thunder in this matchup. Gilgeous-Alexander accumulated 29 points in his 40 minutes of playing time and tallied 12 dimes for the matchup. He knocked down 8 out of 27 in the game for a rate of 29.6%, and had 5 rebounds.

Oklahoma City had a mark of 68-14 last season. The Thunder committed 19.9 fouls per game while shooting 81.9% from the charity stripe. Their rate of assisting teammates was at 26.9 times per contest (12th in basketball) and they turned the ball over 11.7 times per contest. Oklahoma City totaled 9,881 points throughout last season (120.5 per game) and they pulled down 44.8 rebounds per game. As an offensive unit, the Thunder connected on 48.2% from the field, which was ranked 7th in the NBA.

The Oklahoma City defense conceded 34.2% on shots from beyond the arc (1,104 of 3,225) and opponents made 77.4% of their shots from the charity stripe. They gave up 24.6 dimes and 44.9 boards on a nightly basis, which ranked them 4th and 20th in basketball. The Thunder on the defensive end were ranked 3rd in the league in points given up per game with 107.6. They forced 17.0 TO's per game and let teams shoot 43.6% from the floor (1st in basketball).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Houston (+7.5)

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