Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 6/16/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Monday, June 16, 2025

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Indiana (+9.0)

The Indiana Pacers (50-32) are headed to Paycom Center on Monday where they will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. The series is tied 2-2. Oklahoma City opens this matchup as 9-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 223.

The Pacers ended up losing by a score of 111-104 in Game 4 to lose possession of home court advantage.. With respect to personal fouls, the Pacers ended up finishing with 27 and the Thunder finished the game with 26 personal fouls. They converted 3 of their 16 attempts from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City shot 89.5% at the free throw line by converting 34 of 38 attempts. Moreover, Oklahoma City pulled down 43 boards (12 offensive, 31 defensive) and added 3 rejections. Oklahoma City distributed 11 assists and had 12 steals for this game. When discussing defending, Indiana allowed their opponent to shoot 47.4% from the field on 37 out of 78 shooting. They also recorded 21 assists in this game while forcing the other team into 16 turnovers and having 11 steals. With respect to grabbing rebounds, they compiled 33 with 7 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Pacers buried 25 of their 33 tries for a percentage of 75.8%. Indiana finished the game with a 42.5% field goal percentage (34 out of 80) and knocked down 11 of 36 3-point attempts.

Pascal Siakam is one player who played a role for the matchup. Siakam ended up going 40.0% from the floor and dished out 5 assists. He was on the hardwood for 35 minutes and pulled down 8 boards. He ended up with 20 points on 6 of 15 shooting.

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Indiana will play this contest with a record of 50-32 so far this season. They turn the ball over 13.2 times per game and as a unit they are committing 18.7 fouls per contest. As a unit, Indiana is collecting 41.8 rebounds per contest and has earned 2,398 dimes this season, which has them ranked 3rd in basketball in terms of passing the ball. The Pacers are shooting 36.8% on three-point attempts (1,081 of 2,934) and 78.9% from the free throw line. They average 117.4 pts per contest (7th in basketball) while hitting 48.8% from the field.

On defense, the Pacers are able to force 15.0 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 18.8 fouls. They surrender 35.5% on three-point shots and they are 17th in the league in points per game from their opponents (115.1). The Pacers defense is giving up a FG percentage of 47.4% (3,493 of 7,372) and they relinquish 45.0 boards per contest as a unit. They are 12th in the league in giving up assists to the opposition with 2,131 relinquished for the season.

In Game 4, the Thunder were able to collect 31 defensive boards and 12 offensive rebounds totaling 43 for the game. They gave up possession of the ball 16 times, while earning 12 steals for the contest. The Pacers were called for 27 fouls in this contest which got the Thunder to the charity stripe for 38 tries. They were able to knock down 34 of them for a rate of 89.5%. In regard to shots from 3-point land, Oklahoma City buried 3 of their 16 attempts (18.8%). Overall, the Thunder ended up shooting 37 out of 78 from the field which had them shooting 47.4%. The Thunder permitted the Pacers to convert 34 of 80 tries from the floor which gave them a rate of 42.5% in the matchup. They shot 30.6% from three-point range by hitting 11 of 36 and ended up going 25 out of 33 at the free throw line (75.8%). Regarding cleaning the glass, Oklahoma City permitted Indiana to snag 33 in all (7 on the offensive glass).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was important for the Thunder in this contest. He converted 12 of 24 for the game giving him a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and had 3 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 35 points in his 40 mins of playing time, but wrapped up this contest with no dimes.

Oklahoma City has a record of 68-14 on the campaign. The Thunder are committing 19.9 fouls per contest and they go 81.9% from the charity stripe. They are getting an assist 26.9 times per contest (12th in the NBA) and they are losing possession via turnover 11.7 times per game. Oklahoma City has totaled 9,881 pts on the season (120.5 per contest) and they pull in 44.8 boards per game. In terms of offensive execution, the Thunder are connecting on 48.2% from the floor, which has them ranked 7th in the league.

The Thunder defensively are ranked 3rd in the league in points per game surrendered with 107.6. They are forcing their opponents into 17.0 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 43.6% from the floor (1st in basketball). The Oklahoma City defense gives up 34.2% on shots from beyond the perimeter (1,104 of 3,225) and opponents are making 77.4% of their free throw attempts. They give up 24.6 dimes and 44.9 boards per game, which has them ranked 4th and 20th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Indiana (+9.0)

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