Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons Prediction, 1/1/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons

Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026

Location: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI

TV: FanDuel Sports Network

The Miami Heat (17-15) are hitting the road to Little Caesars Arena on Thursday where they will try to defeat the Detroit Pistons (24-8).

The Heat played the Pacers and walked away with a win by a score of 142-116 in their last contest. Miami ended the game having earned a 51.4% FG percentage (55 of 107) and made 12 out of their 31 three-point attempts. At the charity stripe, the Heat made 20 of their 21 attempts for a rate of 95.2%. In relation to grabbing rebounds, they earned 49 with 17 of them being offensive. They also doled out 33 assists in the game in addition to forcing 26 turnovers and having 17 steals. When talking about the defense, Miami allowed 49.5% from the field on 46 out of 93 shooting. Indiana distributed 30 assists and had 6 steals in this matchup. Additionally, Indiana grabbed 45 rebounds (15 offensive, 30 defensive) and got 5 blocks. Indiana finished shooting 75.0% at the free throw line by knocking down 12 of their 16 tries. They also knocked down 12 out of their 38 tries from distance. Concerning fouls, the Heat walked away with 15 and the Pacers accumulated 22 fouls.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is one player who was a major contributor in the matchup. He had 28 points on 11 of 15 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 29 minutes and also grabbed 6 rebounds. Jacquez ended up going 73.3% from the floor and totaled 3 assists.

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Miami enters this game with a record of 17-15 this season. They lose possession via turnover 14.0 times per contest and as a basketball team they commit 18.9 fouls every game. As a unit, Miami is pulling in 45.8 rebounds per contest and is sitting with 912 assists for the year, which is 7th in basketball in terms of passing. The Heat are shooting 36.6% on shots beyond the perimeter (407 of 1,112) and 79.0% from the free throw line. They average 120.2 pts per contest (6th in basketball) while hitting 47.2% from the field.

Defensively, the Heat are forcing their opponents into 16.1 turnovers per game and they draw 20.4 personal fouls. They are currently ranked 22nd in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 869 surrendered on the year. The Heat defensively are giving up and opponent field goal percentage of 45.4% (1,368 of 3,015) and they surrender 47.7 rebounds per game as a unit. They are giving up 34.3% on three-point shots and they are 18th in basketball in points per game from their opponents (117.4).

In their last game, the Pistons took a loss by a score of 112-99 when they faced the Clippers. The Pistons snagged 30 defensive rebounds and 15 offensive rebounds for a total of 45 in this game. They also turned the ball over 13 times, while earning 9 steals in the game. The Clippers had 26 fouls for the game which took the Pistons to the free throw line for a total of 28 shots. They were able to knock down 24 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 85.7%. Pertaining to shots from distance, Detroit converted 7 of 29 attempts (24.1%). At the conclusion of this game, the Pistons shot 34 out of 82 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 41.5%. The Pistons allowed the Clippers to make 35 of their 75 tries from the floor which had them sitting at 46.7% in the game. They shot 41.2% from downtown by shooting 14 of 34 and walked away from this one shooting 28 of 29 at the free throw line (96.6%). Regarding rebounds, Detroit permitted Los Angeles to pull down 35 in total (8 on the offensive glass).

Cade Cunningham ended up being a major contributor for the Pistons for the contest. Cunningham recorded 27 points in his 32 mins of playing time and had 9 dimes in this matchup. He buried 9 out of 18 for the game for a field goal rate of 50.0%, and totaled 5 rebounds.

Detroit has a win-loss mark of 24-8 this season. On the offensive side of the court, the Pistons are shooting 47.8% from the field, which ranks 9th in the league. Detroit has totaled 3,803 pts for the season (118.8 per game) and they average 46.9 boards per contest. They are dishing out assists 26.7 times per contest (11th in the league) and they turn it over 15.6 times per game. The Pistons have committed 23.1 fouls per game and they go 74.4% from the free throw line.

The Pistons on the defensive end are ranked 4th in basketball in points given up per game with 112.9. They are forcing 16.9 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 44.5% from the field (2nd in the NBA). The Detroit defense surrenders 35.2% on 3-point attempts (411 of 1,167) and their opponents are connecting on 81.1% of their shots from the free throw line. They relinquish 23.4 assists and 41.3 rebounds per game, which has them ranked 1st and 6th in the league.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Detroit

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