Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, 5/11/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets

Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025

Location: Ball Arena in Denver, CO

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (-6.0)

Ball Arena is the location where the Denver Nuggets (50-32) will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) on Sunday in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Denver leads the series 2-1. Denver opens as 6-point underdogs. The betting total is set at 227.

The Thunder went home with a loss by a final score of 113-104 in Game 3. Oklahoma City walked away from the contest having earned a 38.5% field goal percentage (40 out of 104) and made 9 of their 35 shots from distance. At the charity stripe, the Thunder buried 15 of their 22 attempts for a percentage of 68.2%. In reference to hauling in boards, they compiled a total of 54 with 18 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 24 assists in this contest while creating 16 turnovers and getting 7 steals. In terms of defense, Oklahoma City allowed 45.9% from the field on 39 of 85 shooting. Denver doled out 25 assists and had 9 steals for the matchup. Additionally, Denver grabbed 49 rebounds (5 offensive, 44 defensive) and got 6 rejections. Denver finished the game shooting 79.2% at the free throw line by converting 19 of 24 tries. They buried 16 out of their 40 attempts from beyond the arc. In regard to personal fouls, the Thunder finished with 21 and the Nuggets totaled 21 personal fouls.

Jalen Williams is someone who was a factor in this contest. Williams shot 52.4% from the floor and also distributed 5 dimes. He played for 43 mins played and grabbed 3 boards. He scored 32 points on 11 out of 21 shooting.

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Oklahoma City heads into this game with a mark of 68-14 so far this year. They are averaging 120.5 pts per contest (4th in the league) while shooting 48.2% from the field. The Thunder are shooting 37.4% on three-point shots (1,192 of 3,184) and 81.9% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Oklahoma City is collecting 44.8 boards per game and has totaled 2,202 dimes for the campaign, which is 12th in the league in terms of passing the rock. They cough up possession 11.7 times per game and as a group they commit 19.9 fouls every game.

On the defensive end, the Thunder are able to force 17.0 turnovers per contest and they draw 18.1 fouls. They surrender 34.2% on shots from downtown while they are 3rd in the league in PPG from their opponents (107.6). The Thunder defensively are giving up an opponent FG percentage of 43.6% (3,109 of 7,130) and they surrender 44.9 boards per game as a squad. They are 4th in the league in giving up assists with 2,018 relinquished for the season.

In Game 3, in reference to cleaning the glass, Denver allowed Oklahoma City to grab 54 overall (18 offensive). They finished shooting 25.7% from 3-point land by going 9 out of 35 and walked away from this one shooting 15 out of 22 from the free throw line (68.2%). The Nuggets permitted the Thunder to make 40 out of their 104 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 38.5% in the matchup. Overall, the Nuggets ended up shooting 39 for 85 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 45.9%. With respect to shots from 3-point land, Denver made 16 of 40 tries (40.0%). They were able to bury 19 of those for a rate of 79.2%. The Thunder were called for 21 personal fouls in this matchup which got the Nuggets to the free throw line for a total of 24 tries. They coughed up the ball 16 times, while getting 9 steals for the game. The Nuggets corralled 44 defensive boards and 5 offensive rebounds totaling 49 for the contest.

Jamal Murray ended up being a major contributor for the Nuggets in the game. Murray recorded 27 points in his 48 mins on the court and added 8 assists in this contest. He made 9 out of 19 in the game for a field goal rate of 47.4%, and had 4 rebounds.

Denver has a win-loss mark of 50-32 for the season. The Nuggets have committed 17.6 personal fouls every game and they hit 77.0% from the free throw line. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 31.0 times per game (1st in the league) and they turn the ball over 14.3 times per game. Denver has scored 9,902 points for the season (120.8 per game) and they pull in 45.7 rebounds per game. In terms of offensive execution, the Nuggets are hitting on 50.6% from the floor, which ranks them 1st in basketball.

The Nuggets defensively are ranked 25th in basketball in points per game surrendered with 116.9. They are forcing their opponents into 13.0 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 46.6% from the field (13th in basketball). The Denver defense allows 36.5% on shots from behind the 3-point line (1,156 of 3,170) and their opponents are converting on 77.7% of their free throw attempts. They give up 29.0 dimes and 42.5 rebounds on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 29th and 7th in the league.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Oklahoma City (-6.0)

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