Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, 5/15/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets

Date: Thursday, May 15, 2025

Location: Ball Arena in Denver, CO

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (-5.0)

The Denver Nuggets (50-32) are hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) at Ball Arena on Thursday in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. OKC leads the series 3 - 2. Oklahoma City opens this contest as 5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total has been set at 219.

In Game 5, the Thunder took home the win by a score of 112-105. In the matter of fouls, the Thunder left the arena with 16 while the Nuggets accounted for 22 fouls. They also made 13 of their 46 attempts from beyond the arc. Denver finished the contest at 92.3% from the free throw line by knocking down 12 of 13 shots. In addition, Denver had 49 boards (16 offensive, 33 defensive) and had 6 rejections. Denver recorded 20 dimes and had 10 steals for the matchup. In terms of defense, Oklahoma City allowed their opponent to shoot 41.2% from the floor on 40 out of 97 shooting. They also dished out 23 dimes for this game while forcing 16 turnovers and having 7 steals. Pertaining to grabbing rebounds, they collected a total of 43 with 8 of them being offensive. From the free throw line, the Thunder converted 18 of 23 tries for a percentage of 78.3%. Oklahoma City ended the contest having earned a 50.0% FG percentage (41 out of 82) and made 12 out of their 29 shots from beyond the arc.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one guy who was a major contributor for the game. Gilgeous-Alexander finished 52.2% from the floor and also recorded 7 assists. He played 39 minutes played and also totaled 6 boards. He had 31 points on 12 out of 23 shooting.

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Oklahoma City comes into this contest with a record of 68-14 for the season. They turn the ball over 11.7 times per contest and as a squad they commit 19.9 fouls per game. As a team, Oklahoma City is snagging 44.8 boards per game and is sitting with 2,202 dimes this season, which has them ranked 12th in the league in terms of passing the ball. The Thunder are shooting 37.4% on three-point attempts (1,192 of 3,184) and 81.9% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 120.5 pts per game (4th in the league) on 48.2% from the field.

On defense, the Thunder are forcing 17.0 turnovers per contest while drawing 18.1 personal fouls. They currently rank 4th in the league in allowing assists to their opponents with 2,018 conceded this year. The Thunder defensively are giving up a FG percentage of 43.6% (3,109 of 7,130) and they surrender 44.9 boards per game as a basketball team. They are giving up 34.2% on three-point shots and they are ranked 3rd in basketball in points per game allowed (107.6).

In Game 5, the Nuggets pulled down 33 defensive rebounds and 16 offensive boards for a total of 49 for the game. They also gave up possession of the ball 16 times, while getting 10 steals for the game. The Thunder were called for 16 personal fouls for the matchup which got the Nuggets to the free throw line for 13 attempts. They were able to make 12 of those for a percentage of 92.3%. When discussing shots from beyond the arc, Denver made 13 of their 46 attempts (28.3%). At the conclusion of this game, the Nuggets ended up shooting 40 out of 97 from the floor which had them shooting 41.2%. The Nuggets permitted the Thunder to bury 41 of 82 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 50.0% for the contest. They shot 41.4% from distance by going 12 of 29 and ended up going 18 of 23 at the charity stripe (78.3%). In the matter of cleaning the glass, Denver permitted Oklahoma City to snag 43 in total (8 offensive).

Nikola Jokic pitched in for the Nuggets in this contest. He knocked down 17 of 25 in this game for a rate of 68.0%, and had 15 rebounds. Jokic tallied 44 points in his 44 minutes on the hardwood and accounted for 5 dimes for the contest.

Denver has a record of 50-32 so far this season. In terms of offensive execution, the Nuggets are connecting on 50.6% from the field, which ranks them 1st in the league. Denver has accumulated 9,902 pts this season (120.8 per contest) and they pull in 45.7 boards per contest. They are getting an assist 31.0 times per game (1st in the NBA) and they turn the ball over 14.3 times per game. The Nuggets are committing 17.6 fouls per game and they hit 77.0% from the free throw line.

The Nuggets on the defensive side of the court are 25th in basketball in PPG given up with 116.9. They are forcing 13.0 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 46.6% from the floor (13th in basketball). The Denver defense concedes 36.5% on 3-point attempts (1,156 of 3,170) and opponents are connecting on 77.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. They relinquish 29.0 assists and 42.5 total boards per game, which is ranked 29th and 7th in the league.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Oklahoma City (-5.0)

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