Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, 5/9/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets

Date: Friday, May 9, 2025

Location: Ball Arena in Denver, CO

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (-6.0)

With the series locked up at 1 - 1, the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) are hitting the road to Ball Arena on Friday where they will try to defeat the Denver Nuggets (50-32) in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Denver is -6-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The over/under is set at 234.

The Thunder faced off with the Nuggets and walked away with a win by a score of 149-106 in Game 2. In reference to fouls, the Thunder finished with 24 and the Nuggets accounted for 29 fouls. They converted 15 of their 37 shots from beyond the arc. Denver ended up shooting 78.1% from the charity stripe by making 25 of 32 attempts. Additionally, Denver totaled 38 boards (13 offensive, 25 defensive) and added 8 blocked shots. Denver earned 18 assists and had 4 steals for this game. In terms of defending, Oklahoma City allowed their opponent to shoot 37.9% from the field on 33 of 87 shooting. They also dished out 31 dimes for the matchup in addition to forcing 21 turnovers and earning 12 steals. In the matter of hauling in rebounds, they earned 44 with 8 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Thunder made 33 of their 36 tries for a percentage of 91.7%. Oklahoma City wrapped up the contest having earned a 56.2% FG percentage (50 of 89) and knocked down 16 of their 36 3-pointers.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a guy who came through in this game. Gilgeous-Alexander finished shooting 84.6% from the field and earned 8 assists. He was on the court for 30 minutes and grabbed 4 rebounds. He racked up 34 points on 11 of 13 shooting.

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Oklahoma City enters this contest with a record of 68-14 so far this year. They currently have an average of 120.5 points per contest (4th in the NBA) while shooting 48.2% from the field. The Thunder are shooting 37.4% on three-point attempts (1,192 of 3,184) and 81.9% from the charity stripe. As a team, Oklahoma City is snagging 44.8 rebounds per contest and has accounted for 2,202 dimes this season, which is 12th in the league in terms of passing the ball. They are turning it over 11.7 times per contest and as a squad they are committing 19.9 fouls on a nightly basis.

On defense, the Thunder are able to force 17.0 turnovers per contest and they draw 18.1 personal fouls. They are 4th in basketball in giving up assists to the opposition with 2,018 relinquished on the campaign. The Thunder defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 43.6% (3,109 of 7,130) and they relinquish 44.9 rebounds per game as a squad. They give up 34.2% on shots from beyond the arc and they rank 3rd in the league in PPG allowed (107.6).

In Game 2, with respect to cleaning up the glass, Denver allowed Oklahoma City to get 44 in total (8 on the offensive glass). They wrapped up this game 44.4% from three-point range by hitting 16 out of 36 and walked away from this one shooting 33 out of 36 from the free throw line (91.7%). The Nuggets allowed the Thunder to convert 50 of their 89 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 56.2% for the matchup. When the game finished, the Nuggets shot 33 out of 87 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 37.9%. When it comes to shots from distance, Denver made 15 out of 37 tries (40.5%). They were able to convert 25 of the free throws for a percentage of 78.1%. The Thunder earned 24 fouls in this game which took the Nuggets to the free throw line for a total of 32 tries. They gave up possession of the ball 21 times, while getting 4 steals for the game. The Nuggets were able to corral 25 defensive boards and 13 offensive rebounds for a total of 38 for this game.

Russell Westbrook pitched in for the Nuggets in the matchup. He made 5 of 11 in the matchup giving him a field goal percentage of 45.5%, and tallied 1 rebound. Westbrook earned 19 points in his 22 minutes on the hardwood and accounted for 5 assists in the matchup.

Denver has a win-loss record of 50-32 so far this season. The Nuggets have committed 17.6 personal fouls every game and they hit 77.0% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 31.0 times per contest (1st in the league) and they turn the ball over 14.3 times per game. Denver has accounted for 9,902 points for the campaign (120.8 per contest) and they average 45.7 boards per contest. In terms of offensive execution, the Nuggets are shooting 50.6% from the floor, which is 1st in the league.

The Denver defense allows 36.5% on shots from beyond the perimeter (1,156 of 3,170) and opponents are converting on 77.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have relinquished 29.0 dimes and 42.5 rebounds per contest, which has them ranked 29th and 7th in the league. The Nuggets on defense are ranked 25th in the league in PPG allowed with 116.9. They are forcing their opponents into 13.0 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 46.6% from the field (13th in the NBA).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Oklahoma City (-6.0)

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