Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, 5/26/2025 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Date: Monday, May 26, 2025

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (-3.0)

Target Center is where the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) will attempt to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) on Monday in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder lead the series 2-1. Oklahoma City opens this matchup as 3-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 218.

The Thunder walked away from Game 3 with a loss by a score of 143-101. Oklahoma City finished the contest having earned a 40.7% FG percentage (35 of 86) and buried 14 out of their 44 3-pointers. At the charity stripe, the Thunder converted 17 of their 19 attempts for a rate of 89.5%. When discussing rebounding, they compiled a total of 31 with 5 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 19 assists for the contest as well as forcing the opposition into 10 turnovers and earning 5 steals. In the matter of defending, Oklahoma City let their opponent shoot 57.3% from the field on 55 out of 96 shooting. Minnesota distributed 30 assists and had 6 steals for the game. Moreover, Minnesota pulled down 50 boards (11 offensive, 39 defensive) and added 3 rejections. Minnesota went 76.5% when shooting free throws by converting 13 of 17 tries. They made 20 of their 40 tries from three-point range. In regard to personal fouls, the Thunder finished with 20 while the Timberwolves recorded 18 personal fouls.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one player who was a factor for this game. He ended up with 14 points on 4 out of 13 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 28 mins played and totaled 2 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 30.8% from the field and distributed 6 dimes.

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Oklahoma City comes into this game with a record of 68-14 this year. They are losing possession via turnover 11.7 times per contest and as a group they commit 19.9 fouls per game. As a unit, Oklahoma City is pulling down 44.8 boards per game and is sitting with 2,202 assists for the season, which ranks 12th in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. The Thunder are hitting 37.4% on 3-point shots (1,192 of 3,184) and 81.9% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 120.5 points per outing (4th in the league) while hitting 48.2% from the field.

On defense, the Thunder have forced 17.0 turnovers per contest while drawing 18.1 fouls. They are ranked 4th in basketball in allowing assists to their opponents with 2,018 relinquished so far this season. The Thunder defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 43.6% (3,109 of 7,130) and they relinquish 44.9 boards per game as a team. They are giving up 34.2% from 3-point land and they are ranked 3rd in basketball in PPG from their opponents (107.6).

In Game 3, the Timberwolves were able to collect 39 defensive boards and 11 offensive rebounds totaling 50 for this game. They gave up possession 10 times, while recording 6 steals for the matchup. The Thunder committed 20 personal fouls for the game which took the Timberwolves to the free throw line for a total of 17 shots. They were able to knock down 13 of the free throw tries for a rate of 76.5%. In relation to 3-point attempts, Minnesota made 20 of their 40 tries (50.0%). Overall, the Timberwolves shot 55 for 96 from the floor which had them shooting 57.3%. The Timberwolves allowed the Thunder to make 35 of 86 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 40.7% in this contest. They finished 31.8% from beyond the arc by shooting 14 of 44 and finished the game at 17 of 19 at the charity stripe (89.5%). Regarding rebounding, Minnesota allowed Oklahoma City to pull down 31 in total (5 offensive).

Anthony Edwards ended up being a major contributor for the Timberwolves in this matchup. Edwards totaled 30 points in his 30 mins on the court and had 6 assists for the contest. He knocked down 12 out of 17 in this contest giving him a field goal percentage of 70.6%, and had 9 rebounds.

Minnesota has a record of 49-33 for the season. When it comes to executing on offense, the Timberwolves are hitting on 46.8% from the floor, which is 16th in the NBA. Minnesota has scored 9,372 pts this year (114.3 per contest) and they average 44.3 boards per game. They are earning an assist 26.1 times per contest (17th in the league) and they are turning it over 14.5 times per game. The Timberwolves commit 18.3 fouls per game and they go 78.9% from the charity stripe.

The Timberwolves defensively are ranked 5th in the league in points given up per game with 109.3. They are forcing their opponents into 14.7 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 46.0% from the floor (7th in the league). The Minnesota defense allows 35.3% on shots from behind the 3-point line (1,040 of 2,949) and their opponents are converting on 76.7% of their free throw attempts. They have surrendered 24.8 assists and 42.9 rebounds per game, which is ranked 5th and 8th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Minnesota (+3.0)

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