Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat Prediction, 10/26/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat

Date: Monday, October 26, 2026

Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL

TV: WPLG

The Miami Heat (0-3) will go up against the Dallas Mavericks (1-2) at Kaseya Center on Monday.

The Mavericks faced off with the Spurs and ended up losing by a score of 122-106 in their last game. Dallas ended having earned a 51.1% FG percentage (45 of 88) and converted 11 of their 28 shots from beyond the perimeter. At the charity stripe, the Mavericks buried 5 of 8 tries for a rate of 62.5%. Pertaining to rebounding, they compiled 42 with 8 of them being offensive. They also recorded 29 assists for the contest as well as forcing the other team into 12 turnovers and having 8 steals. In terms of defense, Dallas allowed the other team to shoot 47.5% from the floor on 48 out of 101 shooting. San Antonio recorded 34 dimes and had 12 steals for this contest. Additionally, San Antonio pulled down 43 rebounds (15 offensive, 28 defensive) and got 6 blocked shots. San Antonio finished shooting 68.8% from the free throw line by burying 11 of 16 attempts. They buried 15 of 42 tries from downtown. In regard to personal fouls, the Mavericks finished with 21 and the Spurs finished the game with 15 personal fouls.

Sergio de Larrea is a guy who played a role in this contest. He ended up with 21 points on 9 of 15 shooting. He played for 33 mins and also totaled 5 rebounds. de Larrea finished 60.0% from the field and also recorded 4 dimes.

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Dallas heads into this game with a win-loss mark of 1-2 on the season. They average 112.3 points per contest (18th in basketball) while shooting 51.0% from the floor. The Mavericks are shooting 36.4% on 3-pointers (36 of 99) and 71.9% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Dallas is collecting 40.3 boards per game and has totaled 77 assists on the season, which ranks 6th in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. They turn it over 19.0 times per game and as a squad are committing 23.7 fouls every game.

On the defensive end, the Mavericks are able to force 16.3 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 18.3 fouls. They are 30th in basketball in allowing assists to their opponents with 93 surrendered so far this year. The Mavericks defensively are giving up a field goal percentage of 48.4% (134 of 277) and they relinquish 42.3 boards per game as a unit. They are conceding 34.5% on shots from beyond the perimeter while they are 20th in the league in opponents points per game (118.3).

When they last stepped on the court, the Heat took a defeat by a final score of 115-110 against the Hornets. The Heat earned 29 defensive rebounds and 8 offensive boards totaling 37 in this matchup. They turned it over 13 times, while earning 9 steals for the game. The Hornets committed 22 fouls for this game which took the Heat to the charity stripe for a total of 25 tries. They were able to convert 23 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 92.0%. Pertaining to three-point shots, Miami made 13 out of 35 tries (37.1%). When the final whistle was blown, the Heat ended up going 37 for 86 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 43.0%. The Heat permitted the Hornets to convert 38 out of 88 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 43.2% in the game. They finished 37.2% from distance via 16 out of 43 and ended up shooting 23 out of 25 from the free throw line (92.0%). When it comes to how they attacked the glass, Miami allowed Charlotte to get 46 in all (10 offensive).

Davion Mitchell was important for the Heat for this game. Mitchell earned 22 points in his 37 minutes of playing time and accounted for 10 dimes in the matchup. He made 8 of 13 for the game giving him a rate of 61.5%, and had 1 rebound.

Miami has a mark of 0-3 this year. The Heat have committed 24.7 personal fouls every game and they shoot 77.2% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 24.3 times per game (21st in basketball) and they lose possession via turnover 14.7 times per game. Miami has earned 327 pts for the season (109.0 per contest) and they pull in 40.0 rebounds per contest. As an offense, the Heat are shooting 42.8% from the floor, which has them ranked 23rd in the NBA.

The Heat on the defensive end are ranked 27th in the league in PPG given up with 124.7. They are forcing their opponents into 17.3 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 47.6% from the field (23rd in basketball). The Miami defense concedes 42.0% on 3-point attempts (55 of 131) and opponents are converting on 77.0% of their free throw shots. They have relinquished 25.3 assists and 50.3 total rebounds per game, which is ranked 11th and 28th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Dallas

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