Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, 4/30/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Date: Thursday, April 30, 2026

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Denver (-5.5)

Target Center is the site where the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) will go up against the Denver Nuggets (54-28) on Thursday in Game 6 of their 1st round series. The Wolves lead 3-2. Minnesota opens this game as 5.5-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is set at 224.5.

The Nuggets secured a win by a score of 125-113 in Game 5. Denver finished the game with a 56.6% field goal percentage (47 of 83) and buried 11 out of their 29 shots from downtown. At the free throw line, the Nuggets knocked down 20 of 25 tries for a percentage of 80.0%. Regarding hauling in rebounds, they earned 29 with 5 of them being of the offensive variety. They also dished out 35 assists for the game as well as forcing 25 turnovers and getting 16 steals. In terms of defense, Denver let their opponent shoot 50.6% from the floor on 41 out of 81 shooting. Minnesota earned 26 dimes and had 6 steals for this contest. Furthermore, Minnesota pulled down 38 rebounds (9 offensive, 29 defensive) and added 6 rejections. Minnesota finished the game shooting 82.6% from the charity stripe by making 19 of 23 attempts. They made 12 of 28 attempts from three-point range. When talking about personal fouls, the Nuggets ended up walking away with 29 and the Timberwolves accounted for 27 personal fouls.

Nikola Jokic is someone who had an impact for the game. He walked away with 27 points on 9 of 15 shooting. He played for 38 mins played and totaled 12 rebounds. Jokic went 60.0% from the floor and earned 16 assists.

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Denver enters this matchup with a record of 54-28 this year. They lose possession by turning the ball over 12.9 times per contest and as a team they are committing 19.1 fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Denver is collecting 44.0 boards per contest and has racked up 2,375 dimes on the year, which ranks 4th in basketball in terms of passing the ball. The Nuggets are hitting 39.6% on shots from beyond the arc (1,161 of 2,934) and 80.8% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 122.1 points per game (1st in basketball) while shooting 49.6% from the floor.

On the defensive end, the Nuggets have forced 11.8 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 21.5 personal fouls. They relinquish 34.9% on 3-point attempts and they are ranked 21st in basketball in points per game allowed (116.9). The Nuggets defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 46.8% (3,503 of 7,481) and they concede 42.8 boards per game as a team. They are ranked 20th in the NBA in giving up assists with 2,254 conceded this season.

Minnesota wasn't able to close out the series in Game 5. When it comes to rebounding, Minnesota permitted Denver to pull down 29 in total (5 on the offensive side). They finished 37.9% from three-point range by shooting 11 of 29 and walked away from this one shooting 20 of 25 at the free throw line (80.0%). The Timberwolves permitted the Nuggets to knock down 47 of their 83 attempts from the floor which left them with a rate of 56.6% for this contest. At the conclusion of this game, the Timberwolves shot 41 for 81 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 50.6%. In regard to three-point shots, Minnesota converted 12 of 28 tries (42.9%). They were able to convert 19 of the free throws for a rate of 82.6%. The Nuggets were called for 29 personal fouls for this game which took the Timberwolves to the free throw line for 23 tries. They coughed up the ball 25 times, while earning 6 steals in this matchup. The Timberwolves recorded 29 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive rebounds totaling 38 for the contest.

Julius Randle was important for the Timberwolves in this contest. He buried 8 out of 15 for the contest for a rate of 53.3%, and had 9 rebounds. Randle had 27 points in his 32 mins on the court and had 6 dimes for the game.

Minnesota has a record of 49-33 so far this year. As an offensive unit, the Timberwolves are shooting 48.1% from the floor, which has them ranked 9th in basketball. Minnesota has accumulated 9,676 pts this year (118.0 per game) and they collect 44.1 boards per game. They are assisting teammates 26.1 times per contest (16th in the league) and they are turning it over 14.8 times per game. The Timberwolves are responsible for committing 21.2 fouls per contest and they hit 75.2% from the charity stripe.

The Minnesota defense surrenders 35.5% on shots from distance (990 of 2,786) and their opponents are connecting on 78.1% of their foul shots. They have relinquished 26.0 dimes and 43.7 rebounds on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 10th and 16th in basketball. The Timberwolves are ranked 12th in the league in points per game surrendered with 114.6. They are forcing 15.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 46.2% from the field (7th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Minnesota (+5.5)

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