Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, 1/3/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks

Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026

Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

TV: KFAA

The Dallas Mavericks (12-22) will play the Houston Rockets (20-10) at American Airlines Center on Saturday.

The Rockets took the court against the Pacers and earned the victory with a final of 126-119 in their last game. Houston finished the contest with a 59.0% field goal percentage (49 out of 83) and made 10 of 27 3-point shots. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Rockets converted 18 of their 24 shots for a rate of 75.0%. Pertaining to pulling down rebounds, they compiled 50 with 14 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 21 assists for this game as well as forcing the opposition into 9 turnovers and having 4 steals. Pertaining to defense, Houston allowed their opponent to shoot 50.0% from the field on 44 of 88 shooting. Indiana recorded 30 dimes and had 12 steals in this matchup. On top of that, Indiana snagged 29 boards (7 offensive, 22 defensive) and added 6 blocks. Indiana finished the contest at 65.0% from the charity stripe by making 13 of 20 attempts. They knocked down 18 out of their 34 attempts from beyond the arc. When talking about fouls, the Rockets left the arena with 17 and the Pacers accounted for 22 fouls.

Amen Thompson is a player who was a major factor in the game. He finished with 20 points on 6 out of 9 shooting. He played 37 minutes and totaled 8 rebounds. Thompson walked away from this one shooting 66.7% from the floor and also recorded 7 dimes.

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Houston heads into this game with a mark of 20-10 on the season. They lose possession via turnover 16.3 times per contest and as a basketball team they commit 19.9 personal fouls per contest. As a unit, Houston is snagging 48.8 boards per contest and is sitting with 769 assists for the year, which has them ranked 27th in the NBA in terms of passing the ball. The Rockets are connecting on 39.9% on shots from downtown (360 of 902) and 77.9% from the free throw line. They average 120.5 points per contest (5th in basketball) while hitting 49.2% from the field.

On the defensive end of the court, the Rockets have forced 13.7 turnovers per game while drawing 21.8 personal fouls. They are giving up 35.8% on three-point shots and they are ranked 3rd in basketball in PPG allowed (112.0). The Rockets defense is giving up a FG percentage of 46.4% (1,226 of 2,645) and they relinquish 37.6 rebounds per contest as a squad. They rank 1st in the league in giving up assists to the opposition with 733 conceded for the season.

In their last game, the Mavericks took a loss by a score of 125-122 when they faced the Trail Blazers. Regarding attacking the glass, Dallas permitted Portland to pull down 48 in all (17 on the offensive glass). They shot 39.0% from distance by going 16 of 41 and ended up going 17 of 22 at the free throw line (77.3%). The Mavericks permitted the Trail Blazers to make 46 of 97 tries from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 47.4% for this contest. When the final whistle blew, the Mavericks finished the game shooting 46 for 91 from the floor which gave them a rate of 50.5%. In reference to three-point attempts, Dallas converted 11 of 32 tries (34.4%). They were able to convert 19 of them for a percentage of 79.2%. The Trail Blazers had 24 personal fouls in the matchup which took the Mavericks to the free throw line for a total of 24 tries. They also coughed up the ball 12 times, while recording 6 steals in this matchup. The Mavericks collected 33 defensive boards and 8 offensive rebounds totaling 41 for the game.

Cooper Flagg ended up being a major contributor for the Mavericks in the matchup. Flagg recorded 15 points in his 35 minutes on the hardwood and accumulated 8 assists in this contest. He converted 6 out of 20 for the contest for a field goal rate of 30.0%, and accumulated 6 rebounds.

Dallas has a record of 12-22 for the season. In terms of offensive execution, the Mavericks are hitting on 46.9% from the field, which is ranked 16th in the NBA. Dallas has accounted for 3,867 pts this season (113.7 per game) and they pull in 44.5 rebounds per contest. They are assisting teammates 25.3 times per game (23rd in the NBA) and they are losing possession via turnover 15.4 times per game. The Mavericks commit 20.0 fouls every game and they shoot 75.7% from the free throw line.

The Mavericks on the defensive end are ranked 20th in the league in points allowed per game with 117.7. They are able to force 13.9 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 46.1% from the floor (6th in the league). The Dallas defense allows 33.5% on 3-point attempts (400 of 1,194) and their opponents are knocking down 78.3% of their shots from the free throw line. They have relinquished 26.8 dimes and 47.7 boards per game, which is 14th and 28th in the league.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Dallas

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