Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction, 2/28/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat

Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026

Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL

TV: Prime Video

The Houston Rockets (37-21) are headed to Kaseya Center on Saturday where they will take on the Miami Heat (31-29).

The Rockets faced the Magic and walked away with a win by a score of 113-108 in their last contest. Houston finished with a 52.4% field goal percentage (43 out of 82) and made 11 of their 29 three-point attempts. At the free throw line, the Rockets made 16 of 20 tries for a rate of 80.0%. Pertaining to pulling down boards, they compiled 41 with 10 of them being of the offensive sort. They also dished out 24 assists for this contest in addition to forcing 12 turnovers and getting 7 steals. In terms of defense, Houston allowed the other team to shoot 45.5% from the floor on 40 out of 88 shooting. Orlando distributed 25 dimes and had 11 steals for this game. In addition, Orlando snagged 40 rebounds (15 offensive, 25 defensive) and added 9 blocks. Orlando went 61.9% when shooting free throws by making 13 of 21 tries. They also buried 15 out of their 37 shots from long range. With respect to fouls, the Rockets ended up walking away with 17 while the Magic totaled 16 fouls.

Kevin Durant is one player who played a role for this contest. He was able to score 40 points on 14 of 28 shooting. He played for 40 mins and pulled down 8 rebounds. Durant finished the game shooting 50.0% from the floor and also dished out 3 assists.

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Houston steps onto the court with a record of 37-21 so far this season. They average 114.7 points per contest (20th in the NBA) while shooting 47.5% from the field. The Rockets are hitting 37.2% on shots from downtown (667 of 1,794) and 76.0% from the free throw line. As a unit, Houston is pulling in 48.3 boards per game and has tallied 1,438 assists on the year, which ranks 28th in basketball in terms of passing the rock. They lose possession by turning the ball over 15.5 times per game and as a basketball team they are committing 18.5 fouls per contest.

Defensively, the Rockets have forced 13.5 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 19.8 personal fouls. They currently rank 2nd in the league in allowing assists to their opponents with 1,417 surrendered on the campaign. The Rockets defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 45.5% (2,327 of 5,112) and they relinquish 39.7 boards per contest as a basketball team. They are giving up 34.5% on 3-point attempts and they are ranked 3rd in the league in opponents points per game (109.1).

For their last game, the Heat walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 124-117 against the 76ers. The Heat corralled 35 defensive boards and 10 offensive boards totaling 45 for the game. They also gave up possession of the ball 14 times, while recording 8 steals for this game. The 76ers were called for 22 personal fouls in the game which took the Heat to the free throw line for a total of 26 shots. They were able to knock down 20 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 76.9%. With respect to shooting from beyond the arc, Miami converted 17 of 40 attempts (42.5%). When all was said and done, the Heat finished 40 out of 87 from the field which had them at 46.0%. The Heat allowed the 76ers to convert 45 of 94 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 47.9% for this game. They shot 39.5% from behind the 3-point line by connecting on 17 of 43 and finished the game at 17 out of 18 from the charity stripe (94.4%). Concerning team rebounding, Miami permitted Philadelphia to grab 49 in all (11 on the offensive side).

Bam Adebayo ended up being a major contributor for the Heat for the game. He knocked down 10 out of 20 in this contest for a rate of 50.0%, and added 14 rebounds. Adebayo totaled 29 points in his 36 minutes on the court and had 3 assists for this game.

Miami has a mark of 31-29 for the year. When it comes to offense, the Heat are shooting 46.3% from the floor, which ranks 19th in basketball. Miami has accumulated 7,195 points for the year (119.9 per game) and they snag 47.3 boards per game. They are getting an assist 28.7 times per contest (7th in the league) and they are turning it over 14.2 times per contest. The Heat commit 18.9 fouls per game while shooting 78.5% from the free throw line.

The Miami defense gives up 35.0% on 3-point shots (834 of 2,380) and their opponents are connecting on 80.5% of their shots from the charity stripe. They relinquish 27.1 dimes and 47.2 total rebounds per game, which is 19th and 29th in the NBA. The Heat on defense are ranked 20th in the league in points allowed per contest with 117.2. They are able to force 15.5 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 45.8% from the field (6th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Miami

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