Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, 10/28/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks

Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Location: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA

TV: WANF

State Farm Arena is where the Atlanta Hawks (2-2) will take on the Miami Heat (0-4) on Wednesday.

The Heat faced off with the Mavericks and went home with a loss by a final score of 113-109 in their last contest. In regard to fouls, the Heat ended up walking away with 14 and the Mavericks recorded 23 fouls. They also knocked down 14 out of their 46 shots from 3-point land. Dallas finished the game shooting 92.9% from the charity stripe by making 13 of their 14 shots. In addition, Dallas grabbed 51 boards (13 offensive, 38 defensive) and had 5 blocked shots. Dallas earned 31 assists and had 11 steals in the matchup. When talking about the defense, Miami allowed 45.7% from the field on 43 of 94 shooting. They also doled out 26 assists for this game while forcing the opposition into 17 turnovers and earning 9 steals. When talking about rebounding, they compiled 42 with 10 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the free throw line, the Heat knocked down 14 of their 25 attempts for a rate of 56.0%. Miami walked away from the game having earned a 44.6% FG percentage (41 of 92) and made 13 of their 41 three-point shots.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is one player who played a role in this matchup. Antetokounmpo finished the game shooting 52.2% from the floor and also recorded 11 assists. He was on the court for 39 minutes played and also grabbed 14 boards. He racked up 29 points on 12 of 23 shooting.

Get all of our NBA Best Bets Picks

Miami comes into this one with a record of 0-4 for the year. They are giving up possession 14.5 times per game and as a group are committing 22.0 personal fouls per contest. As a unit, Miami is pulling down 40.5 rebounds per game and has accounted for 99 dimes so far this season, which ranks 11th in basketball in terms of passing. The Heat are connecting on 30.6% on shots from beyond the arc (49 of 160) and 72.1% from the free throw line. They are averaging 109.0 pts per game (28th in the NBA) while shooting 43.2% from the field.

On the defensive end of the court, the Heat are able to force 17.3 turnovers per game and they draw 23.8 fouls. They rank 25th in the league in allowing assists to their opponents with 107 relinquished so far this year. The Heat defensively are allowing a field goal percentage of 47.2% (174 of 369) and they concede 50.5 rebounds per contest as a squad. They are giving up 39.0% on shots from beyond the arc while they are 24th in the NBA in PPG allowed (121.8).

When they last played, the Hawks walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 120-110 when they played the Rockets. Regarding rebounds, Atlanta allowed Houston to grab 52 overall (12 on the offensive glass). They went 29.6% from 3-point land by shooting 8 of 27 and ended up shooting 26 out of 32 at the free throw line (81.3%). The Hawks permitted the Rockets to convert 43 of 81 attempts from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 53.1% in this matchup. Overall, the Hawks walked away from this one shooting 42 out of 98 from the field which gave them a percentage of 42.9%. Regarding shots from beyond the perimeter, Atlanta converted 11 of 39 tries (28.2%). They were able to knock down 15 of them for a clip of 71.4%. The Rockets committed 22 fouls in this contest which got the Hawks to the free throw line for 21 tries. They turned the ball over 13 times, while getting 10 steals in this matchup. The Hawks were able to collect 22 defensive rebounds and 13 offensive rebounds for a total of 35 in this game.

Jalen Johnson was important for the Hawks in this contest. He made 5 of 14 in the game for a field goal rate of 35.7%, and accumulated 9 rebounds. Johnson accumulated 21 points in his 36 mins on the court and added 4 assists for this game.

Atlanta has a record of 2-2 on the campaign. As an offensive team, the Hawks are shooting 46.7% from the field, which is ranked 12th in the league. Atlanta has earned 484 pts on the campaign (121.0 per game) and they pull in 41.8 boards per contest. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 31.5 times per game (1st in the league) and they are losing possession via turnover 14.3 times per game. The Hawks are committing 24.5 personal fouls every game while shooting 74.0% from the free throw line.

The Atlanta defense surrenders 30.1% on 3-point attempts (46 of 153) and opponents are connecting on 82.1% of their shots from the free throw line. They relinquish 27.3 assists and 45.5 rebounds per game, which has them ranked 20th and 19th in the league. The Hawks defensively are ranked 13th in the league in points given up per game with 111.8. They are able to force 21.3 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 45.9% from the field (15th in the NBA).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Miami

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get NBA picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.