Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 1/11/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: FanDuel Sports Network

The Miami Heat (20-17) are on their way to Paycom Center on Sunday where they will try to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder (31-7).

The Heat took the court against the Timberwolves and went home with a loss by a final score of 122-94 in their last contest. Miami finished the contest with a 35.7% field goal percentage (35 of 98) and made 12 of their 37 3-pointers. From the charity stripe, the Heat made 12 of their 16 attempts for a rate of 75.0%. Concerning rebounding, they collected 50 with 11 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 28 assists for this game while forcing the other team into 12 turnovers and earning 5 steals. In relation to defense, Miami allowed the other team to shoot 45.9% from the field on 45 out of 98 shooting. Minnesota distributed 27 assists and had 7 steals for the game. Additionally, Minnesota snagged 63 rebounds (11 offensive, 52 defensive) and got 4 blocked shots. Minnesota finished the game at 78.3% at the free throw line by burying 18 of 23 attempts. They converted 14 out of their 39 shots from downtown. In reference to fouls, the Heat finished with 20 and the Timberwolves recorded 23 fouls.

Norman Powell is a player who was a contributor for the contest. Powell finished shooting 52.9% from the field and dished out 4 dimes. He saw the court for 31 minutes played and also collected 3 rebounds. He ended up scoring 21 points on 9 out of 17 shooting.

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Miami heads into this one with a win-loss record of 20-17 on the season. They currently have an average of 120.1 points per game (3rd in the NBA) while connecting on 46.9% from the floor. The Heat are shooting 37.0% on shots from downtown (487 of 1,315) and 79.3% from the charity stripe. As a team, Miami is pulling in 45.6 boards per contest and has accumulated 1,062 dimes this season, which is 9th in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. They are turning it over 14.4 times per contest and as a unit are committing 18.9 fouls per contest.

On defense, the Heat have forced 16.2 turnovers per contest and they draw 20.3 personal fouls. They are 19th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 1,004 conceded on the year. The Heat defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 45.9% (1,586 of 3,457) and they concede 47.2 boards per game as a squad. They are surrendering 34.4% from beyond the arc while they are 21st in basketball in opponents PPG (117.4).

In their last game, the Thunder got the win with a final of 129-125 when they faced the Jazz. The Thunder were able to collect 39 defensive rebounds and 12 offensive boards for a total of 51 in the matchup. They also turned the ball over 11 times, while earning 14 steals in the game. The Jazz were called for 31 personal fouls for the game which took the Thunder to the charity stripe for 42 tries. They were able to convert 34 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 81.0%. When it comes to shooting from beyond the arc, Oklahoma City made 7 of 38 attempts (18.4%). When all was said and done, the Thunder ended up shooting 44 out of 101 from the floor which had them at 43.6%. The Thunder allowed the Jazz to bury 49 out of their 111 tries from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 44.1% for the contest. They finished 26.8% from three-point range by going 11 out of 41 and ended up going 16 out of 21 at the free throw line (76.2%). In relation to how they cleaned up the glass, Oklahoma City permitted Utah to collect 65 in total (19 on the offensive side).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ended up being important for the Thunder for the contest. Gilgeous-Alexander accumulated 46 points in his 42 minutes on the court and had 6 dimes in this game. He buried 14 out of 26 in the matchup giving him a rate of 53.8%, and had 6 rebounds.

Oklahoma City has a record of 31-7 on the year. When it comes to offense, the Thunder are connecting on 48.9% from the field, which is ranked 3rd in the NBA. Oklahoma City has tallied 4,615 points this year (121.4 per contest) and they collect 44.1 rebounds per contest. Their rate of earning assists is at 25.8 times per contest (17th in the league) and they turn the ball over 12.4 times per game. The Thunder commit 20.4 personal fouls per contest and they connect on 83.1% from the free throw line.

The Thunder on the defensive end are ranked 1st in the NBA in points given up per game with 108.1. They are forcing 18.2 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 43.4% from the floor (1st in basketball). The Oklahoma City defense gives up 37.3% on 3-pointers (553 of 1,482) and their opposition knocks down 76.1% of their foul shots. They allow 24.2 assists and 44.7 boards per contest, which has them ranked 3rd and 18th in the league.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Oklahoma City

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