Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Prediction, 1/3/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat

Date: Saturday, January 3, 2026

Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL

TV: NBA TV

The Minnesota Timberwolves (21-13) are headed to Kaseya Center on Saturday where they will meet the Miami Heat (18-15).

The Timberwolves stepped onto the hardwood against the Hawks and took a loss by a score of 126-102 in their last game. When it comes to personal fouls, the Timberwolves walked away with 16 and the Hawks accounted for 15 personal fouls. They knocked down 16 out of their 42 attempts from downtown. Atlanta finished the contest at 50.0% at the charity stripe by making 8 of 16 tries. On top of that, Atlanta totaled 49 rebounds (16 offensive, 33 defensive) and added 6 blocks. Atlanta dished out 38 dimes and had 9 steals in the game. When discussing defending, Minnesota allowed the other team to go 49.0% from the field on 51 of 104 shooting. They also doled out 22 assists in the matchup in addition to forcing the opposition into 10 turnovers and having 5 steals. Concerning hauling in rebounds, they collected 46 with 11 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Timberwolves knocked down 14 of 18 tries for a rate of 77.8%. Minnesota finished the contest with a 42.5% field goal percentage (37 out of 87) and knocked down 14 out of their 40 shots from distance.

Anthony Edwards is someone who was a major contributor for this game. He ended up walking away with 30 points on 10 out of 18 shooting. He played 33 minutes and also snagged 5 boards. Edwards finished the game at 55.6% from the floor and dished out 2 assists.

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Minnesota comes into this matchup with a record of 21-13 on the year. They have an average of 118.8 points per game (11th in basketball) while shooting 47.6% from the field. The Timberwolves are shooting 36.8% on shots beyond the perimeter (476 of 1,293) and 75.9% from the free throw line. As a team, Minnesota is pulling down 44.2 boards per game and has accounted for 902 assists for the campaign, which has them ranked 10th in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. They turn it over 14.3 times per game and as a unit they are committing 21.8 personal fouls on a nightly basis.

When they are on the defensive end, the Timberwolves are forcing their opponents into 14.8 turnovers every game while drawing 21.8 personal fouls. They are giving up 35.1% on 3-point attempts and they are ranked 11th in the league in PPG allowed (114.6). The Timberwolves defense is allowing a field goal percentage of 45.8% (1,403 of 3,065) and they surrender 43.9 boards per game as a squad. They are currently ranked 14th in the NBA in allowing assists to the opposition with 864 conceded for the year.

The last time they took the court, the Heat got the win with a final of 147-123 when they faced the Nuggets. The Heat collected 31 defensive rebounds and 15 offensive boards totaling 46 in the matchup. They gave up possession of the ball 10 times, while getting 8 steals for the matchup. The Nuggets committed 21 personal fouls for the matchup which got the Heat to the charity stripe for a total of 23 attempts. They were able to make 19 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 82.6%. In terms of shots from distance, Miami buried 22 of their 46 tries (47.8%). When the final whistle blew, the Heat ended up going 53 for 99 from the field which had them shooting 53.5%. The Heat allowed the Nuggets to knock down 47 of their 89 attempts from the floor which left them with a rate of 52.8% in the game. They finished 35.5% from three-point range by hitting 11 out of 31 and finished the contest at 18 of 22 from the free throw line (81.8%). In reference to cleaning up the glass, Miami permitted Denver to pull down 36 overall (6 on the offensive glass).

Davion Mitchell pitched in for the Heat for the contest. Mitchell scored 10 points in his 32 minutes on the court and had 9 assists for this game. He made 4 of 8 in this game for a field goal rate of 50.0%, and earned 3 rebounds.

Miami has a mark of 18-15 on the year. In terms of offensive execution, the Heat are shooting 47.4% from the floor, which ranks them 11th in basketball. Miami has scored 3,992 points on the campaign (121.0 per game) and they average 45.8 boards per game. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 28.8 times per game (7th in the NBA) and they are giving up possession 13.9 times per game. The Heat are committing 19.0 fouls per game and they connect on 79.1% from the charity stripe.

The Miami defense concedes 34.4% from downtown (463 of 1,347) and their opponents are converting on 80.2% of their free throw shots. They have relinquished 27.2 dimes and 47.4 total rebounds per game, which ranks them 19th and 27th in the league. The Heat are ranked 19th in the league in points given up per game with 117.5. They are able to force 15.9 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 45.6% from the field (4th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Minnesota

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