Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, 10/28/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks

Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

TV: KFAA

American Airlines Center is the location where the Dallas Mavericks (2-2) will try to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0) on Wednesday.

The Thunder played the Suns and earned the victory with a final of 125-114 in their last contest. In the matter of personal fouls, the Thunder ended up finishing with 20 while the Suns accumulated 24 personal fouls. They knocked down 18 of their 50 shots from beyond the perimeter. Phoenix went 72.0% at the free throw line by burying 18 of 25 shots. Moreover, Phoenix had 38 rebounds (14 offensive, 24 defensive) and added 7 rejections. Phoenix doled out 29 dimes and had 7 steals for the contest. In reference to defending, Oklahoma City allowed their opponent to shoot 42.9% from the field on 39 of 91 shooting. They also doled out 24 assists for the game while creating 13 turnovers and getting 3 steals. When discussing grabbing boards, they earned 48 with 12 of them being of the offensive sort. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Thunder made 25 of 29 attempts for a rate of 86.2%. Oklahoma City wrapped up the contest with a 51.2% field goal percentage (44 out of 86) and knocked down 12 out of their 32 3-point attempts.

Ajay Mitchell is someone who was a major factor in the matchup. Mitchell shot 62.5% from the field and earned 5 assists. He was on the court for 25 minutes played and also snagged 2 rebounds. He totaled 30 points on 10 of 16 shooting.

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Oklahoma City heads into this game with a record of 4-0 for the season. They turn it over 15.0 times per contest and as a unit they are committing 20.0 fouls every game. As a team, Oklahoma City is collecting 46.8 rebounds per game and has racked up 93 assists on the year, which has them ranked 13th in basketball in terms of passing. The Thunder are hitting 34.6% on three-point attempts (45 of 130) and 87.5% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 111.3 pts per contest (21st in the NBA) while hitting 44.6% from the floor.

On defense, the Thunder are able to force 18.8 turnovers per game and they draw 22.5 fouls. They are 20th in basketball in giving up assists to their opponents with 97 surrendered this year. The Thunder defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 41.2% (143 of 347) and they surrender 43.5 boards per contest as a unit. They are giving up 32.9% on shots from downtown while they are 1st in the league in PPG from their opponents (100.8).

When they last stepped on the court, the Mavericks took home the win by a final score of 113-109 when they faced the Heat. Concerning how they rebounded, Dallas allowed Miami to get 42 in all (10 offensive). They finished 31.7% from behind the 3-point line by hitting 13 of 41 and ended up shooting 14 out of 25 from the charity stripe (56.0%). The Mavericks allowed the Heat to convert 41 of their 92 tries from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 44.6% for this game. At the conclusion of this game, the Mavericks finished 43 for 94 from the field which had them at 45.7%. In regard to shots from 3-point land, Dallas buried 14 of their 46 attempts (30.4%). They were able to convert 13 of the free throws for a rate of 92.9%. The Heat had 14 fouls for this game which got the Mavericks to the charity stripe for a total of 14 attempts. They coughed up the ball 17 times, while recording 11 steals in this matchup. The Mavericks corralled 38 defensive boards and 13 offensive rebounds for a total of 51 for the contest.

Cooper Flagg ended up being a factor for the Mavericks in the matchup. He knocked down 12 out of 23 in the matchup giving him a field goal percentage of 52.2%, and accumulated 6 rebounds. Flagg racked up 29 points in his 40 minutes on the court and earned 11 assists for the contest.

Dallas has a mark of 2-2 so far this season. The Mavericks are committing 23.5 personal fouls every game and they go 76.1% from the charity stripe. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 27.0 times per game (9th in basketball) and they turn it over 18.5 times per game. Dallas has totaled 450 points for the season (112.5 per game) and they average 43.0 rebounds per contest. As an offense, the Mavericks are shooting 49.6% from the floor, which is 3rd in the league.

The Mavericks on defense are ranked 18th in the league in points per game surrendered with 116.0. They are able to force 15.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and allow teams to shoot 47.4% from the field (21st in the league). The Dallas defense concedes 33.8% on shots from beyond the perimeter (51 of 151) and opponents are converting on 67.0% of their shots from the free throw line. They have relinquished 29.8 dimes and 42.3 boards on a nightly basis, which ranks 28th and 10th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Dallas

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