Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers Prediction, 5/9/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers

Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026

Location: crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (-8.5)

The Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) are traveling to crypto.com Arena on Saturday where they will attempt to beat the Los Angeles Lakers (53-29) in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. OKC leads 2-0. Los Angeles opens this game as 8.5-point underdogs. The total comes in at 211.5.

The Thunder notched a win by a score of 125-107 in Game 2. Concerning personal fouls, the Thunder ended up with 21 while the Lakers finished the game with 26 personal fouls. They knocked down 11 of 29 attempts from beyond the arc. Los Angeles finished the game at 85.7% at the charity stripe by converting 18 of their 21 shots. Additionally, Los Angeles snagged 30 rebounds (10 offensive, 20 defensive) and had 5 blocks. Los Angeles distributed 24 dimes and had 7 steals for the contest. With regard to the defense, Oklahoma City allowed the other team to shoot 50.0% from the field on 39 out of 78 shooting. They also dished out 26 assists in this contest while forcing the other team into 21 turnovers and having 12 steals. Concerning getting rebounds, they compiled 32 with 9 of them being of the offensive sort. From the charity stripe, the Thunder made 21 of 26 tries for a rate of 80.8%. Oklahoma City wrapped up the game with a 55.6% field goal percentage (45 out of 81) and converted 14 of 36 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one guy who played a role in the matchup. Gilgeous-Alexander finished the game shooting 53.8% from the floor and dished out 2 assists. He was on the court for 28 mins played and grabbed 2 rebounds. He notched 22 points on 7 out of 13 shooting.

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Oklahoma City comes into this game with a win-loss mark of 64-18 on the campaign. They are losing possession via turnover 12.6 times per contest and as a basketball team are committing 19.0 fouls every game. As a team, Oklahoma City is grabbing 44.1 boards per game and has 2,113 assists this year, which is 19th in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. The Thunder are connecting on 36.5% from downtown (1,135 of 3,111) and 81.7% from the free throw line. They have an average of 119.0 pts per contest (5th in the league) while going 48.4% from the field.

Defensively, the Thunder are forcing 16.7 turnovers per game and they draw 20.4 personal fouls. They currently rank 5th in the league in allowing assists to their opponents with 2,046 conceded this season. The Thunder defensively are allowing a field goal percentage of 43.7% (3,170 of 7,247) and they relinquish 45.2 boards per game as a squad. They surrender 36.9% on shots from beyond the perimeter while they are 2nd in the NBA in opponents points per game (107.9).

Los Angeles got completely outplayed in the 2nd half of Game 2. The Lakers pulled down 20 defensive boards and 10 offensive boards totaling 30 in the matchup. They coughed up the ball 21 times, while recording 7 steals for this contest. The Thunder had 21 personal fouls for this contest which got the Lakers to the charity stripe for a total of 21 shots. They were able to make 18 of the free throws for a percentage of 85.7%. Pertaining to 3-point shots, Los Angeles converted 11 out of 29 attempts (37.9%). At the conclusion of this game, the Lakers went 39 out of 78 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 50.0%. The Lakers permitted the Thunder to knock down 45 out of their 81 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 55.6% in this game. They finished 38.9% from three-point range by shooting 14 out of 36 and ended up shooting 21 out of 26 at the free throw line (80.8%). In the matter of cleaning up the glass, Los Angeles allowed Oklahoma City to get 32 in all (9 on the offensive side).

Austin Reaves ended up being a major contributor for the Lakers in the matchup. He buried 10 out of 16 for the game giving him a rate of 62.5%, and totaled 2 rebounds. Reaves recorded 31 points in his 38 mins of playing time and tallied 6 dimes in the matchup.

Los Angeles has a mark of 53-29 for the year. When it comes to offense, the Lakers are hitting on 50.2% from the floor, which ranks them 1st in the NBA. Los Angeles has tallied 9,540 pts so far this season (116.3 per game) and they grab 41.0 rebounds per game. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 25.9 times per game (17th in basketball) and they cough up possession 14.5 times per game. The Lakers commit 18.5 personal fouls every game while shooting 76.3% from the charity stripe.

The Los Angeles defense gives up 35.2% on 3-pointers (1,050 of 2,982) and opponents are knocking down 79.2% of their free throw shots. They have given up 27.4 assists and 41.0 boards per contest, which is ranked 18th and 5th in the NBA. The Lakers on the defensive side of the court are 11th in the NBA in PPG given up with 114.6. They are forcing 14.6 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 48.3% from the field (24th in the league).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Los Angeles (+8.5)

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