Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction, 1/17/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat

Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026

Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL

TV: FanDuel Sports Network

The Oklahoma City Thunder (34-7) are headed to Kaseya Center on Saturday where they will play the Miami Heat (21-19).

The Thunder played the Spurs and walked away with a win by a score of 119-98 in their last game. Oklahoma City walked away from the game having earned a 51.9% FG percentage (42 of 81) and buried 11 out of their 30 three-point attempts. At the charity stripe, the Thunder converted 24 of their 27 shots for a percentage of 88.9%. In the matter of grabbing rebounds, they compiled 43 with 5 of them being offensive. They also dished out 26 dimes in this matchup as well as forcing 12 turnovers and earning 7 steals. In the matter of the defense, Oklahoma City allowed the other team to shoot 40.0% from the field on 34 out of 85 shooting. San Antonio recorded 21 dimes and had 4 steals for this contest. Moreover, San Antonio totaled 42 rebounds (12 offensive, 30 defensive) and had 11 blocks. San Antonio finished 70.8% at the free throw line by burying 17 of 24 shots. They also made 13 out of their 37 tries from downtown. Concerning fouls, the Thunder ended up walking away with 23 while the Spurs racked up 25 fouls.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is someone who was a factor for this contest. Gilgeous-Alexander walked away from this one shooting 47.8% from the field and also dished out 5 assists. He played 34 mins played and snagged 5 rebounds. He left the arena with 34 points on 11 of 23 shooting.

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Oklahoma City enters this game with a win-loss record of 34-7 this year. They are averaging 121.3 points per outing (2nd in basketball) while hitting 49.0% from the field. The Thunder are hitting 35.6% on shots beyond the perimeter (538 of 1,513) and 82.8% from the free throw line. As a unit, Oklahoma City is collecting 43.9 rebounds per game and has tallied 1,053 assists on the year, which is 14th in the league in terms of passing the ball. They turn the ball over 12.3 times per contest and as a basketball team are committing 20.5 personal fouls every game.

When they are on defense, the Thunder are able to force 18.1 turnovers every game and they draw 21.5 fouls. They concede 37.5% on shots from distance and they rank 1st in the league in opponents PPG (108.1). The Thunder defensively are giving up a FG percentage of 43.6% (1,553 of 3,559) and they relinquish 44.6 rebounds per contest as a squad. They are ranked 6th in basketball in allowing assists to the opposition with 1,009 conceded for the campaign.

In their last game, the Heat walked away with a victory by a final of 127-121 when they faced the Suns. The Heat were able to corral 32 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards totaling 41 for this game. They coughed up the ball 12 times, while earning 8 steals for this game. The Suns earned 22 fouls in the matchup which got the Heat to the free throw line for a total of 22 tries. They were able to bury 18 of those for a clip of 81.8%. When talking about 3-pointers, Miami made 13 of their 38 attempts (34.2%). At the conclusion of this game, the Heat ended up going 48 for 92 from the floor which gave them a rate of 52.2%. The Heat permitted the Suns to convert 44 of their 102 attempts from the field which left them with a rate of 43.1% in the matchup. They went 29.2% from 3-point land by shooting 14 out of 48 and walked away from this one shooting 19 out of 20 from the free throw line (95.0%). Concerning how they attacked the glass, Miami allowed Phoenix to get 48 overall (18 on the offensive side).

Bam Adebayo pitched in for the Heat in this game. He converted 11 of 15 for this game giving him a field goal percentage of 73.3%, and totaled 9 rebounds. Adebayo earned 29 points in his 32 minutes on the hardwood and had 4 assists for the game.

Miami has a record of 21-19 on the campaign. The Heat have committed 19.1 fouls per game and they shoot 79.0% from the free throw line. They are assisting teammates 28.6 times per game (7th in the NBA) and they are losing possession via turnover 14.7 times per contest. Miami has 4,782 points this year (119.6 per game) and they snag 45.5 rebounds per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Heat are connecting on 47.0% from the field, which ranks 16th in the league.

The Heat on the defensive end are ranked 22nd in the league in PPG given up with 117.8. They are forcing their opponents into 16.1 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 45.9% from the field (4th in the league). The Miami defense allows 34.4% on shots from 3-point land (554 of 1,612) and opponents are knocking down 80.6% of their shots from the charity stripe. They concede 27.2 assists and 47.4 boards per game, which is 18th and 29th in the league.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Oklahoma City

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