Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, 4/25/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns

Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (-9.0)

Mortgage Matchup Center is the location where the Phoenix Suns (45-37) will attempt to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) on Saturday in Game 3 of their 1st round series. OKC leads 2-0. Phoenix opens this matchup as 9.0-point underdogs from oddsmakers. The total comes in at 214.5.

The Thunder earned the victory by a final of 120-107 in Game 2. Oklahoma City finished the contest with a 47.3% FG percentage (43 out of 91) and buried 14 of their 40 shots from distance. From the charity stripe, the Thunder converted 20 of 25 shots for a rate of 80.0%. In reference to pulling down rebounds, they earned 40 with 12 of them being of the offensive variety. They also dished out 24 dimes in this game in addition to forcing the other team into 22 turnovers and having 14 steals. When it comes to defending, Oklahoma City allowed 45.9% from the field on 39 out of 85 shooting. Phoenix dished out 23 dimes and had 7 steals for the contest. On top of that, Phoenix had 44 rebounds (15 offensive, 29 defensive) and added 6 blocks. Phoenix shot 81.8% from the charity stripe by knocking down 18 of 22 shots. They made 11 of 31 shots from long range. In the matter of fouls, the Thunder walked away with 21 and the Suns finished the game with 25 fouls.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is someone who was a major factor in the matchup. He finished with 37 points on 13 of 25 shooting. He was on the court for 38 mins played and also collected 5 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander went 52.0% from the floor and also distributed 9 assists.

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Oklahoma City will enter this game with a win-loss record of 64-18 on the campaign. They have an average of 119.0 pts per game (5th in basketball) while going 48.4% from the field. The Thunder are connecting on 36.5% from downtown (1,135 of 3,111) and 81.7% from the free throw line. As a team, Oklahoma City is pulling in 44.1 rebounds per game and has accounted for 2,113 dimes on the year, which has them ranked 19th in the NBA in terms of passing the ball. They lose possession via turnover 12.6 times per contest and as a squad are committing 19.0 fouls per game.

When they are on defense, the Thunder are able to force 16.7 turnovers per game while drawing 20.4 personal fouls. They are 5th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 2,046 relinquished on the season. The Thunder defense is allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 43.7% (3,170 of 7,247) and they concede 45.2 boards per contest as a basketball team. They give up 36.9% on shots from beyond the perimeter while they are 2nd in basketball in points per game allowed (107.9).

Phoenix will need to get better on both ends of the court after their Game 2 loss. The Suns were able to pull down 29 defensive boards and 15 offensive rebounds totaling 44 in the game. They gave up possession 22 times, while earning 7 steals in this game. The Thunder committed 21 fouls for the game which got the Suns to the charity stripe for 22 attempts. They were able to bury 18 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 81.8%. In relation to 3-point shots, Phoenix made 11 of their 31 tries (35.5%). Overall, the Suns walked away from this one shooting 39 for 85 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 45.9%. The Suns permitted the Thunder to convert 43 out of 91 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 47.3% in the matchup. They wrapped up this game 35.0% from distance by connecting on 14 of 40 and finished the game at 20 of 25 from the free throw line (80.0%). With respect to attacking the glass, Phoenix allowed Oklahoma City to collect 40 in total (12 on the offensive glass).

Dillon Brooks ended up being a factor for the Suns in this matchup. He made 12 out of 23 for the game for a field goal percentage of 52.2%, and totaled 6 rebounds. Brooks accumulated 30 points in his 38 minutes on the hardwood and had 1 assist in the game.

Phoenix has a record of 45-37 for the campaign. In terms of offensive execution, the Suns are connecting on 45.5% from the floor, which ranks 28th in basketball. Phoenix has accumulated 9,232 pts on the year (112.6 per contest) and they average 43.1 boards per game. They are getting an assist 24.6 times per contest (28th in basketball) and they are losing possession via turnover 14.5 times per contest. The Suns commit 20.6 fouls per contest while shooting 78.1% from the charity stripe.

The Suns on the defensive end are ranked 6th in the NBA in points given up per game with 111.1. They are forcing 16.3 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 47.0% from the field (15th in basketball). The Phoenix defense gives up 34.7% on shots from behind the 3-point line (998 of 2,876) and their opponents are connecting on 78.5% of their free throw attempts. They have relinquished 25.1 assists and 43.7 rebounds every game, which ranks them 7th and 15th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (+9.0)

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