Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, 4/27/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns

Date: Monday, April 27, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (-10.0)

The Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) are traveling to Mortgage Matchup Center on Monday where they will compete against the Phoenix Suns (45-37) in Game 4 of their series. OKC leads 3-0. Oklahoma City opens this matchup as 10.0-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 213.

The Thunder earned the victory by a final of 121-109 in Game 4. Oklahoma City walked away from the game having earned a 49.5% FG percentage (45 out of 91) and knocked down 12 of their 37 shots from beyond the arc. At the charity stripe, the Thunder converted 19 of 21 attempts for a rate of 90.5%. When it comes to hauling in rebounds, they earned 43 with 8 of them being offensive. They also dished out 23 dimes for this game while forcing the other team into 11 turnovers and having 6 steals. In reference to defense, Oklahoma City allowed the other team to shoot 43.7% from the floor on 38 of 87 shooting. Phoenix recorded 25 dimes and had 2 steals for the contest. Additionally, Phoenix collected 39 rebounds (9 offensive, 30 defensive) and added 6 rejections. Phoenix finished the game shooting 87.0% from the free throw line by burying 20 of 23 attempts. They also made 13 out of their 41 shots from distance. In reference to personal fouls, the Thunder left the arena with 22 while the Suns totaled 25 personal fouls.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one player who played a role in the matchup. He racked up 42 points on 15 out of 18 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 38 mins and also collected 4 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander ended up shooting 83.3% from the floor and dished out 8 assists.

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Oklahoma City will play this contest with a win-loss record of 64-18 for the year. They are turning it over 12.6 times per game and as a basketball team are committing 19.0 personal fouls per contest. As a unit, Oklahoma City is collecting 44.1 boards per game and has tallied 2,113 dimes on the season, which is 19th in basketball in terms of passing. The Thunder are hitting 36.5% on shots from 3-point land (1,135 of 3,111) and 81.7% from the charity stripe. They average 119.0 pts per contest (5th in the league) while hitting 48.4% from the field.

On defense, the Thunder are able to force 16.7 turnovers per contest and they draw 20.4 fouls. They are giving up 36.9% on shots from distance and they are ranked 2nd in the NBA in points per game allowed (107.9). The Thunder defensively are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 43.7% (3,170 of 7,247) and they concede 45.2 rebounds per game as a basketball team. They currently rank 5th in basketball in giving up assists to the opposition with 2,046 surrendered this season.

The Suns weren't able to put up much of a fight in Game 3. In reference to team rebounding, Phoenix permitted Oklahoma City to collect 43 overall (8 offensive). They finished 32.4% from 3-point land by connecting on 12 of 37 and walked away from this one shooting 19 out of 21 at the free throw line (90.5%). The Suns permitted the Thunder to convert 45 out of 91 tries from the field which had them sitting at 49.5% in this game. When this game wrapped up, the Suns walked away from this one shooting 38 for 87 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 43.7%. Pertaining to three-point attempts, Phoenix made 13 out of 41 attempts (31.7%). They were able to bury 20 of the free throws for a rate of 87.0%. The Thunder had 22 personal fouls in this contest which got the Suns to the charity stripe for 23 attempts. They turned the ball over 11 times, while earning 2 steals for this contest. The Suns were able to collect 30 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive rebounds for a total of 39 in the game.

Dillon Brooks ended up being important for the Suns in the game. Brooks racked up 33 points in his 37 minutes on the hardwood and had 1 assist in this game. He made 11 out of 21 in the game giving him a rate of 52.4%, and had 7 rebounds.

Phoenix has a mark of 45-37 this year. The Suns are responsible for committing 20.6 personal fouls per contest and they connect on 78.1% from the charity stripe. They are dishing out assists 24.6 times per contest (28th in basketball) and they are giving up possession 14.5 times per game. Phoenix has accumulated 9,232 pts on the year (112.6 per game) and they average 43.1 boards per game. When it comes to offensive execution, the Suns are connecting on 45.5% from the floor, which is ranked 28th in the NBA.

The Phoenix defense allows 34.7% on shots from distance (998 of 2,876) and their opponents are connecting on 78.5% of their free throw attempts. They have relinquished 25.1 assists and 43.7 total boards per game, which is ranked 7th and 15th in basketball. The Suns defensively are ranked 6th in basketball in points per game surrendered with 111.1. They are able to force 16.3 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 47.0% from the floor (15th in the NBA).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (+10.0)

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