Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, 5/28/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

Date: Thursday, May 28, 2026

Location: Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Oklahoma City (+3.5)

Frost Bank Center is where the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) will compete against the Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) on Thursday in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. OKC leads 3-2. San Antonio opens this contest as 3.5-point favorites. The over/under comes in at 219.5.

The Thunder took home the win in Game 5 by a score of 127-114. When discussing personal fouls, the Thunder ended up finishing with 22 and the Spurs accounted for 29 personal fouls. They converted 12 of 41 attempts from beyond the perimeter. San Antonio finished the game at 87.5% from the free throw line by knocking down 28 of their 32 tries. Additionally, San Antonio totaled 41 rebounds (15 offensive, 26 defensive) and earned 5 rejections. San Antonio totaled 25 assists and had 14 steals in the game. In terms of defending, Oklahoma City let their opponent shoot 40.2% from the floor on 37 out of 92 shooting. They also dished out 26 assists for the matchup in addition to forcing 15 turnovers and earning 9 steals. With regard to grabbing rebounds, they earned 48 with 14 of them being offensive. At the free throw line, the Thunder knocked down 33 of 38 attempts for a percentage of 86.8%. Oklahoma City wrapped up the contest having earned a 48.2% FG percentage (40 of 83) and made 14 of their 32 shots from beyond the arc.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a guy who was a contributor in this matchup. Gilgeous-Alexander walked away from this one shooting 36.8% from the field and earned 9 assists. He played 37 minutes played and snagged 2 rebounds. He ended up finishing with 32 points on 7 of 19 shooting.

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Oklahoma City will enter this matchup with a record of 64-18 this season. They are averaging 119.0 pts per game (5th in basketball) while hitting 48.4% from the floor. The Thunder are hitting 36.5% on shots from beyond the arc (1,135 of 3,111) and 81.7% from the charity stripe. As a team, Oklahoma City is collecting 44.1 boards per contest and has tallied 2,113 assists this year, which ranks 19th in the league in terms of passing. They are turning it over 12.6 times per game and as a unit are committing 19.0 personal fouls every game.

On the defensive end of the court, the Thunder have forced 16.7 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 20.4 personal fouls. They currently rank 5th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 2,046 surrendered on the campaign. The Thunder are giving up a shooting percentage of 43.7% (3,170 of 7,247) and they surrender 45.2 rebounds per game as a squad. They relinquish 36.9% on 3-point shots while they are 2nd in the league in PPG allowed (107.9).

San Antonio could never really close the gap in Game 5, trailing for most of the contest. The Spurs collected 26 defensive rebounds and 15 offensive boards for a total of 41 in the game. They coughed up the ball 15 times, while earning 14 steals in the matchup. The Thunder were called for 22 personal fouls in this matchup which took the Spurs to the charity stripe for 32 shots. They were able to make 28 of them for a clip of 87.5%. Pertaining to 3-point shots, San Antonio converted 12 of 41 attempts (29.3%). When the final whistle was blown, the Spurs went 37 for 92 from the field which had them at 40.2%. The Spurs allowed the Thunder to bury 40 out of 83 tries from the floor which gave them a rate of 48.2% for the game. They finished shooting 43.8% from beyond the arc by shooting 14 of 32 and finished the game at 33 out of 38 from the free throw line (86.8%). When it comes to how they rebounded, San Antonio permitted Oklahoma City to get 48 overall (14 offensive).

Stephon Castle was important for the Spurs for this contest. He made 7 out of 11 for the contest giving him a rate of 63.6%, and earned 5 rebounds. Castle recorded 24 points in his 33 minutes on the hardwood and had 6 dimes in the game.

San Antonio has a win-loss mark of 62-20 on the season. The Spurs have committed 18.9 personal fouls per game and they go 78.7% from the charity stripe. Their rate of earning assists is at 28.1 times per contest (9th in the NBA) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 13.5 times per game. San Antonio has accounted for 9,826 pts so far this season (119.8 per contest) and they average 47.0 boards per game. As an offensive unit, the Spurs are shooting 48.3% from the field, which ranks them 6th in the league.

The Spurs defensively are ranked 8th in the league in PPG given up with 111.5. They are forcing their opponents into 13.0 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 45.1% from the floor (4th in the league). The San Antonio defense concedes 35.2% on shots from beyond the perimeter (1,066 of 3,028) and their opponents are knocking down 79.0% of their free throw attempts. They concede 26.2 dimes and 42.6 boards every game, which ranks 12th and 8th in the NBA.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take San Antonio (-3.5)

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