San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, 5/10/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: San Antonio (-4.5)

The San Antonio Spurs (62-20) are traveling to Target Center on Sunday where they will compete against the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. San Antonio leads 2-1. San Antonio opens this game as 4.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The betting total comes in at 218.5.

The Spurs went home with a win by a final score of 115-108 in Game 3. In relation to fouls, the Spurs finished with 23 and the Timberwolves totaled 25 fouls. They converted 14 out of their 40 attempts from beyond the arc. Minnesota finished 85.7% at the free throw line by making 18 of 21 shots. Furthermore, Minnesota pulled down 54 rebounds (15 offensive, 39 defensive) and had 7 rejections. Minnesota earned 22 assists and had 3 steals for this game. In regard to defense, San Antonio allowed the other team to shoot 38.4% from the floor on 38 of 99 shooting. They also doled out 26 assists for this game while forcing the opposition into 12 turnovers and getting 9 steals. When it comes to rebounding, they earned 48 with 8 of them being offensive. At the free throw line, the Spurs made 25 of their 33 attempts for a rate of 75.8%. San Antonio ended the contest with a 45.9% FG percentage (39 of 85) and buried 12 of 33 three-point attempts.

Victor Wembanyama is someone who was a factor for the matchup. Wembanyama ended up going 72.2% from the field and totaled 1 assist. He was on the hardwood for 37 minutes and collected 15 boards. He accounted for 39 points on 13 of 18 shooting.

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San Antonio comes into this matchup with a mark of 62-20 this season. They are averaging 119.8 pts per game (3rd in basketball) while shooting 48.3% from the floor. The Spurs are connecting on 35.9% on shots from distance (1,116 of 3,108) and 78.7% from the charity stripe. As a unit, San Antonio is pulling down 47.0 boards per contest and has accounted for 2,302 dimes this season, which has them ranked 9th in the league in terms of passing the rock. They are giving up possession 13.5 times per game and as a basketball team they are committing 18.9 fouls every game.

Defensively, the Spurs are able to force 13.0 turnovers per game while drawing 20.2 personal fouls. They are 12th in the league in allowing assists with 2,148 surrendered on the campaign. The Spurs are allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 45.1% (3,366 of 7,469) and they concede 42.6 rebounds per contest as a squad. They surrender 35.2% on shots from downtown and they rank 8th in the NBA in opponents points per game (111.5).

Minnesota wasn't able do much to stop the Spurs in Game 3. With respect to how they attacked the glass, Minnesota permitted San Antonio to get 48 in all (8 on the offensive glass). They shot 36.4% from beyond the perimeter by going 12 of 33 and finished the contest at 25 of 33 from the free throw line (75.8%). The Timberwolves permitted the Spurs to convert 39 of 85 attempts from the floor which had them sitting at 45.9% in the game. When the final whistle blew, the Timberwolves shot 38 for 99 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 38.4%. Concerning shots from beyond the perimeter, Minnesota made 14 of 40 tries (35.0%). They were able to knock down 18 of the free throw tries for a rate of 85.7%. The Spurs earned 23 personal fouls in the matchup which got the Timberwolves to the charity stripe for 21 attempts. They also coughed up the ball 12 times, while getting 3 steals in this matchup. The Timberwolves were able to pull down 39 defensive rebounds and 15 offensive rebounds for a total of 54 in this contest.

Anthony Edwards ended up being a major contributor for the Timberwolves for the contest. Edwards had 32 points in his 41 mins of playing time and had 6 dimes for the game. He converted 12 of 26 in this contest giving him a field goal percentage of 46.2%, and had 14 rebounds.

Minnesota has a record of 49-33 on the season. As an offense, the Timberwolves are hitting on 48.1% from the floor, which ranks them 9th in the league. Minnesota has scored 9,676 points on the campaign (118.0 per game) and they pull in 44.1 rebounds per game. They are earning an assist 26.1 times per game (16th in the league) and they turn it over 14.8 times per game. The Timberwolves are committing 21.2 fouls per contest and they shoot 75.2% from the free throw line.

The Minnesota defense allows 35.5% on 3-point shots (990 of 2,786) and their opponents are converting on 78.1% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have surrendered 26.0 dimes and 43.7 total rebounds per game, which ranks them 10th and 16th in basketball. The Timberwolves are ranked 12th in basketball in points per game surrendered with 114.6. They are forcing their opponents into 15.0 TO's every game and allow teams to shoot 46.2% from the field (7th in the NBA).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Minnesota (+4.5)

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