San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, 5/15/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Date: Friday, May 15, 2026

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: San Antonio (-4.5)

The Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) will compete against the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) at Target Center on Friday in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Spurs lead 3-2. San Antonio opens this contest as 4.5-point favorites from Vegas oddsmakers. The total is set at 218.5.

The Spurs notched a win by a score of 126-97 in Game 5. When talking about personal fouls, the Spurs finished with 24 and the Timberwolves totaled 24 personal fouls. They made 9 of 33 shots from 3-point land. Minnesota walked away from this one shooting 80.0% at the charity stripe by knocking down 24 of 30 tries. In addition, Minnesota pulled down 42 rebounds (10 offensive, 32 defensive) and got 8 rejections. Minnesota doled out 17 dimes and had 7 steals for the game. When talking about the defense, San Antonio allowed the other team to go 38.6% from the field on 32 of 83 shooting. They also doled out 25 assists in this matchup in addition to forcing the opposition into 16 turnovers and getting 9 steals. When it comes to getting rebounds, they earned 50 with 11 of them being on the offensive end. From the free throw line, the Spurs made 21 of their 27 attempts for a rate of 77.8%. San Antonio wrapped up the game with a 52.8% FG percentage (47 of 89) and buried 11 out of their 32 three-point shots.

Victor Wembanyama is someone who came through in the game. He ended up scoring 27 points on 9 out of 16 shooting. He played 33 minutes and also snagged 17 boards. Wembanyama finished the contest at 56.3% from the field and also dished out 5 assists.

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San Antonio heads into this game with a win-loss record of 62-20 this season. They turn it over 13.5 times per game and as a unit they are committing 18.9 fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, San Antonio is pulling in 47.0 rebounds per contest and has tallied 2,302 assists for the campaign, which is 9th in the NBA in terms of passing. The Spurs are connecting on 35.9% on shots from distance (1,116 of 3,108) and 78.7% from the free throw line. They have an average of 119.8 points per contest (3rd in basketball) while shooting 48.3% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Spurs are able to force 13.0 turnovers per game and they draw 20.2 personal fouls. They give up 35.2% on 3-point shots and they are ranked 8th in the league in points per game allowed (111.5). The Spurs are giving up an opponent FG percentage of 45.1% (3,366 of 7,469) and they surrender 42.6 boards per game as a squad. They currently rank 12th in the NBA in allowing assists with 2,148 relinquished on the campaign.

Minnesota didn't put up much of a fight in Game 5. The Timberwolves were able to snag 32 defensive boards and 10 offensive rebounds for a total of 42 in the game. They also turned the ball over 16 times, while getting 7 steals for the matchup. The Spurs earned 24 personal fouls for this contest which got the Timberwolves to the charity stripe for 30 shots. They were able to make 24 of the free throw attempts for a rate of 80.0%. In terms of three-point attempts, Minnesota made 9 of 33 tries (27.3%). Overall, the Timberwolves ended up shooting 32 out of 83 from the field which gave them a rate of 38.6%. The Timberwolves permitted the Spurs to bury 47 of their 89 attempts from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 52.8% for the matchup. They finished 34.4% from three-point range by connecting on 11 out of 32 and ended up going 21 of 27 from the free throw line (77.8%). Regarding rebounds, Minnesota allowed San Antonio to grab 50 overall (11 on the offensive glass).

Anthony Edwards ended up being a major contributor for the Timberwolves in this contest. He made 6 out of 13 in this contest for a rate of 46.2%, and accumulated 2 rebounds. Edwards accumulated 20 points in his 39 mins of playing time and had 2 dimes for this contest.

Minnesota has a win-loss mark of 49-33 so far this year. The Timberwolves have committed 21.2 fouls per game and they go 75.2% from the charity stripe. They are earning an assist 26.1 times per contest (16th in the league) and they are turning it over 14.8 times per contest. Minnesota has earned 9,676 points so far this year (118.0 per game) and they grab 44.1 boards per game. As an offense, the Timberwolves are shooting 48.1% from the field, which is ranked 9th in basketball.

The Timberwolves are ranked 12th in the NBA in points per game surrendered with 114.6. They are forcing their opponents into 15.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 46.2% from the floor (7th in the NBA). The Minnesota defense allows 35.5% on 3-point attempts (990 of 2,786) and their opponents are knocking down 78.1% of their free throw shots. They have surrendered 26.0 assists and 43.7 total rebounds per game, which has them ranked 10th and 16th in basketball.

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take San Antonio (-4.5)

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