San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, 5/8/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Date: Friday, May 8, 2026

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: San Antonio (-4.5)

Target Center is the site where the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) will take on the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) on Friday in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 1-1. Minnesota opens this contest as 4.5-point dogs. The over/under comes in at 215.5.

The Spurs notched a win by a score of 133-95 in Game 2. San Antonio wrapped up the game having earned a 50.0% FG percentage (45 of 90) and buried 16 of 39 3-point attempts. At the charity stripe, the Spurs buried 27 of their 33 attempts for a rate of 81.8%. In reference to rebounding, they earned 55 with 13 of them being of the offensive variety. They also recorded 29 dimes for this contest while creating 22 turnovers and having 13 steals. Pertaining to defense, San Antonio allowed the other team to shoot 39.8% from the floor on 35 out of 88 shooting. Minnesota distributed 19 assists and had 7 steals for the contest. On top of that, Minnesota had 43 rebounds (12 offensive, 31 defensive) and added 9 rejections. Minnesota ended up shooting 51.6% from the charity stripe by knocking down 16 of their 31 attempts. They also made 9 of their 30 attempts from long range. In regard to personal fouls, the Spurs ended up walking away with 28 while the Timberwolves racked up 25 personal fouls.

Stephon Castle is a guy who was a contributor for this contest. He was able to score 21 points on 6 out of 10 shooting. He was on the court for 24 mins played and pulled down 4 boards. Castle went 60.0% from the floor and also dished out 4 assists.

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San Antonio enters this contest with a win-loss mark of 62-20 for the campaign. They have an average of 119.8 pts per game (3rd in the NBA) while shooting 48.3% from the floor. The Spurs are hitting 35.9% from downtown (1,116 of 3,108) and 78.7% from the free throw line. As a team, San Antonio is collecting 47.0 rebounds per game and has 2,302 assists on the campaign, which ranks 9th in the NBA in terms of passing. They turn the ball over 13.5 times per game and as a basketball team are committing 18.9 fouls per contest.

On the defensive end, the Spurs are forcing 13.0 turnovers per contest and they draw 20.2 personal fouls. They rank 12th in the league in giving up assists with 2,148 conceded on the campaign. The Spurs are giving up a field goal percentage of 45.1% (3,366 of 7,469) and they surrender 42.6 boards per game as a unit. They concede 35.2% on shots from distance and they are ranked 8th in basketball in PPG allowed (111.5).

Minnesota got completely outplayed on both ends of the court in Game 2. The Timberwolves collected 31 defensive rebounds and 12 offensive boards for a total of 43 for the contest. They turned it over 22 times, while getting 7 steals for the game. The Spurs earned 28 personal fouls in this matchup which got the Timberwolves to the charity stripe for 31 attempts. They were able to bury 16 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 51.6%. When it comes to shots from beyond the arc, Minnesota made 9 of 30 tries (30.0%). Overall, the Timberwolves ended up going 35 for 88 from the field which had them shooting 39.8%. The Timberwolves allowed the Spurs to make 45 out of their 90 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 50.0% for the matchup. They went 41.0% from distance by going 16 of 39 and walked away from this one shooting 27 out of 33 at the free throw line (81.8%). With respect to attacking the glass, Minnesota allowed San Antonio to pull down 55 overall (13 offensive).

Anthony Edwards pitched in for the Timberwolves in the game. Edwards accumulated 12 points in his 24 minutes on the hardwood, but left the arena with no assists. He buried 5 of 13 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 38.5%, and added 3 rebounds.

Minnesota has a win-loss record of 49-33 for the campaign. The Timberwolves have committed 21.2 fouls per game and they connect on 75.2% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 26.1 times per game (16th in the NBA) and they turn it over 14.8 times per contest. Minnesota has totaled 9,676 pts on the year (118.0 per contest) and they collect 44.1 rebounds per game. As an offensive team, the Timberwolves are connecting on 48.1% from the field, which is ranked 9th in the NBA.

The Timberwolves defensively are ranked 12th in basketball in PPG given up with 114.6. They are forcing 15.0 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 46.2% from the floor (7th in basketball). The Minnesota defense concedes 35.5% on 3-point shots (990 of 2,786) and their opposition makes 78.1% of their foul shots. They have given up 26.0 assists and 43.7 rebounds on a nightly basis, ranking them 10th and 16th in basketball.

So what is Tonights Parlay prediction?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Minnesota (+4.5) and over 215.5 points

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