San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, 5/26/2026 Preview and Pick

Game: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Location: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: San Antonio (+5.5)

Paycom Center is the site where the Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) will attempt to beat the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) on Tuesday in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The series is tied 2-2. San Antonio opens as 5.5-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under is 215.5.

The Spurs dominated Game 4 from the start and won by a score of 103-82. In reference to fouls, the Spurs ended up walking away with 20 and the Thunder recorded 25 fouls. They also buried 6 of their 33 tries from distance. Oklahoma City walked away from this one shooting 88.9% when shooting free throws by knocking down 16 of 18 attempts. Additionally, Oklahoma City snagged 47 rebounds (11 offensive, 36 defensive) and added 10 rejections. Oklahoma City doled out 22 assists and had 9 steals for the contest. With regard to defending, San Antonio allowed their opponent to shoot 33.0% from the field on 30 out of 91 shooting. They also recorded 25 assists in the game while forcing the other team into 20 turnovers and having 11 steals. Pertaining to rebounding, they earned 52 with 14 of them being on the offensive end. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Spurs made 24 of 32 attempts for a rate of 75.0%. San Antonio finished the game with a 38.9% FG percentage (35 of 90) and converted 9 out of their 33 3-point attempts.

Victor Wembanyama is a player who was a factor in the game. Wembanyama finished 50.0% from the floor and dished out 5 dimes. He saw the court for 31 mins played and totaled 8 rebounds. He accounted for 33 points on 11 of 22 shooting.

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San Antonio comes into this game with a record of 62-20 so far this season. They lose possession via turnover 13.5 times per game and as a unit they are committing 18.9 fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, San Antonio is collecting 47.0 boards per game and is sitting with 2,302 dimes so far this year, which has them ranked 9th in the NBA in terms of passing the rock. The Spurs are shooting 35.9% on three-point attempts (1,116 of 3,108) and 78.7% from the free throw line. They currently have an average of 119.8 pts per contest (3rd in the NBA) while hitting 48.3% from the field.

Defensively, the Spurs are able to force 13.0 turnovers per game while drawing 20.2 fouls. They are 12th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 2,148 conceded on the campaign. The Spurs defensively are allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 45.1% (3,366 of 7,469) and they concede 42.6 rebounds per game as a basketball team. They are giving up 35.2% from beyond the arc and they are 8th in the league in PPG allowed (111.5).

Oklahoma City got outplayed in every aspect of the game in Game 4. With respect to team rebounding, Oklahoma City allowed San Antonio to pull down 52 overall (14 on the offensive side). They shot 27.3% from three-point range by going 9 of 33 and finished the game at 24 of 32 from the charity stripe (75.0%). The Thunder permitted the Spurs to knock down 35 out of 90 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 38.9% in this contest. When the game finished, the Thunder ended up shooting 30 out of 91 from the field which had them at 33.0%. With regard to shooting from 3-point land, Oklahoma City converted 6 out of their 33 tries (18.2%). They were able to make 16 of the free throws for a clip of 88.9%. The Spurs had 20 personal fouls in this matchup which got the Thunder to the free throw line for 18 tries. They also coughed it up 20 times, while recording 9 steals for the contest. The Thunder were able to collect 36 defensive boards and 11 offensive boards for a total of 47 in this contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was important for the Thunder in the matchup. Gilgeous-Alexander earned 19 points in his 31 minutes of playing time and had 7 assists in this matchup. He converted 6 of 15 in this contest for a rate of 40.0%, and accumulated 4 rebounds.

Oklahoma City has a win-loss record of 64-18 so far this season. The Thunder are responsible for committing 19.0 personal fouls per game and they hit 81.7% from the charity stripe. They are assisting teammates 25.8 times per game (19th in the league) and they lose possession via turnover 12.6 times per contest. Oklahoma City has scored 9,760 points so far this year (119.0 per game) and they average 44.1 boards per game. As an offensive unit, the Thunder are connecting on 48.4% from the field, which is 5th in the league.

The Oklahoma City defense surrenders 36.9% on shots from distance (1,176 of 3,189) and their opponents are knocking down 74.0% of their foul shots. They have conceded 25.0 assists and 45.2 total boards per game, which is 5th and 20th in the NBA. The Thunder on the defensive end are ranked 2nd in the league in PPG given up with 107.9. They are forcing 16.7 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 43.7% from the floor (1st in the league).

Who will win tonight's NBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take San Antonio (+5.5)

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