Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, 2/3/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Location: Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL

TV: WXPX-TV

Amalie Arena is the site where the Tampa Bay Lightning (34-14-4) will go up against the Buffalo Sabres (31-18-5) on Tuesday.

The Buffalo Sabres will look to clean up some issues after taking a 4-2 loss against the Canadiens in their previous game. Buffalo recorded 6 penalty minutes in this matchup. The Sabres didn't have their best offensive outing in the loss. Additionally, they had 4 chances with extra men on the ice and were able to notch 1 goal. For the outing, they were able to notch a goal on 2 out of the 38 shots they put on net.

Buffalo Sabres opponents have totaled 145 power play opportunities (29th in the league) and have scored 25 goals in those attempts. The Sabres have seen 1,605 shots tried against them and hold a save percentage of .898. Buffalo has taken 1,501 shots and is the owner of a shot percentage of 12.1%. While playing at even strength, the Sabres have conceded 139 goals while getting 151 themselves. Buffalo has accounted for 158 power play chances and they have scored 31 goals out of those attempts, earning them a rate of 19.62%. For the season, they have tallied 67 points and their points percentage is sitting at .620. Concerning their goal scoring prowess, the Buffalo Sabres have notched 182 goals (7th in hockey) for the season and have given up 164.

The player between the pipes for this game is Colten Ellis. Opponents have tallied 34 goals versus Ellis in his career and his average for goals against per game is 3.09. Ellis has been in goal for 12 games over the course of his NHL career. His save percentage is .898 during his 28 minutes on the ice. He has accumulated an overall record of 7-4-0 and was named the starter in 11 games. For his professional hockey career, Ellis has accumulated 6 quality starts and his percentage for quality starts is .545. Ellis has had 332 shots against him and has recorded 298 saves.

In their last contest, Tampa Bay played the Jets in a game where the Lightning got the win by a final score of 4-1. They had 1 power play chance in this game but were not able to net one. The Lightning earned 4 goals out of the 37 shots on goal they pursued.

The Lightning have scored 146 goals at even strength and 34 goals (14th in the NHL) while having a power play advantage. Tampa Bay has put up 1,439 shots (24th in professional hockey) and has accumulated a shot percentage of 12.51%, while allowing the other team 1,355 shots. This season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have earned a total of 180 goals, 72 points, as well as a points percentage of .692. They have allowed 129 goals to be scored by of a combination of 104 goals at even strength and 25 goals while they were shorthanded. They have a total of 160 power play chances and they have a power play percentage of 21.25%. They have recorded a penalty kill rate of 84.57% on their opponents 162 power play tries, and their save percentage comes in at 90.5%.

Across the ice you are likely to see Andrei Vasilevskiy patrolling the crease. The opposition is averaging 2.49 goals/game and he has conceded 1,404 goals overall. Vasilevskiy's quality start rate sits at 58.9% and he has earned 332 quality starts in his professional career. He got the starting nod in 564 games and has played 28,705 minutes. Vasilevskiy has earned a career mark of 355-170-38 and has participated in 574 contests. He has a tally of 15,568 saves out of the 16,972 shots taken, which gives him a percentage of .917.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Buffalo

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