Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres Prediction, 5/14/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres

Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026

Location: KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY

TV: TNT

Odds/Point Spread: Canadiens (+102) Sabres (-122)

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10) are on their way to KeyBank Center on Thursday where they will go up against the Buffalo Sabres (50-23-9) in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series is tied 2-2. The line on this matchup has Montreal at +102 while Buffalo is at -122. The betting total is set at 5.5.

The Montreal Canadiens will look to clean up some issues after taking a 3-2 defeat against the Sabres in Game 4. Montreal earned 10 penalty mins in this contest. The Canadiens left a lot to be desired in terms of their offense in this defeat. Furthermore, they had 7 power play opportunities and were able to score 1 goal. For the matchup, they finished 2 out of the 30 shots they attempted.

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Concerning their goal scoring prowess, the Montreal Canadiens have notched 279 goals (7th in the NHL) this season and have surrendered 251. For the year, they have recorded 106 points and their points percentage is sitting at .646. Montreal is sitting with 242 power play opportunities and they have notched 56 goals out of those attempts, giving them a rate of 23.14%. While at even strength, the Canadiens have allowed the opponent to score 197 goals while earning 223 of their own. Montreal has taken 2,156 shots and holds a shooting percentage of 12.9%. The Canadiens thus far have had 2,283 shots attempted against them and are the owners of a save percentage of .890. Montreal Canadiens opponents have tallied 248 power play tries (8th in hockey) and have tallied 54 goals in those attempts.

The man in net for this game is Jakub Dobes. Opponents have been able to score 157 goals against Dobes in his NHL career and his average for goals against per game is 2.75. Dobes has participated in 59 games during his pro hockey career. He has a save percentage of .904 during his 953 minutes guarding the cage. He has accumulated a mark of 36-14-7 and was named the starter in 57 games. For his professional hockey career, Dobes has accounted for 35 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is .614. Dobes has had 1,627 shots taken against him and has recorded 1,470 saves.

Buffalo was able to get the narrow win in Game 4. The Sabres converted 3 goals of the 22 shots on goal they pursued. They had 4 opportunities on the power play in this outing and netted 2 out of those tries.

Buffalo has tried 2,307 shots (13th in professional hockey) and has earned a shooting percentage of 12.27%, while allowing the other team 2,381 shots. They have accumulated a penalty kill rate of 81.90% on the other teams 232 power play opportunities, and their save percentage currently comes in at 89.9%. They have recorded 246 power play chances and they have a power play percentage of 19.51%. The Sabres are sitting with 235 goals at even strength and 48 goals (18th in pro hockey) while on the power play. They have permitted 240 goals to be scored by of a combination of 198 goals at even strength and 42 goals while they were shorthanded. So far this season, the Buffalo Sabres have earned a total of 283 goals, 109 points, and a points percentage of .665.

On the other side of the ice you are going to see Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen protecting the net. Teams are averaging 2.91 goals/game and he has yielded 538 goals altogether. Luukkonen's quality start rate comes in at 55.1% and he has 102 quality starts in his NHL career. He has made the start in 185 games and his ice time sits at 8,299 minutes. Luukkonen is the owner of a career mark of 93-74-18 and has played in 190 games. He has gathered 4,830 saves out of the 5,368 shots attempted against him, which gives him a save percentage of .900.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony's Pick: Take Montreal (+102)

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