Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, 4/26/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens

Date: Sunday, April 26, 2026

Location: Bell Centre in Montreal, QC

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-115) Canadiens (-105)

The Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10) will go up against the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6) at Bell Centre on Sunday in Game 4 of their 1st round series. Montreal leads 2-1. The odds on this game have the Lightning at -115 while the Canadiens are at -105. The over/under is set at 5.5.

The Tampa Bay Lightning will be looking to improve after their 3-2 defeat against the Canadiens in Game 3. The Lightning left a lot to be desired in terms of their offense in the defeat. For the game, they scored on 2 of the 17 shots they tried. In addition, they had 5 power play tries and were able to score 1 goal. Tampa Bay accounted for 14 minutes in the box in this game.

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Regarding scoring goals, the Tampa Bay Lightning have accounted for 286 goals (4th in the league) on the season and have allowed 229. For the current campaign, they have recorded 106 points and their points % is .646. Tampa Bay has tallied 246 power play opportunities and they have added 51 goals during those chances, garnering them a percentage of 20.73%. While at even strength, the Lightning let the opposition score 184 goals while having 235 as an offensive unit. Tampa Bay has taken 2,305 shots and is the owner of a shooting percentage of 12.4%. The Lightning have seen 2,188 shots attempted against them and have a save percentage of .895. Tampa Bay Lightning opponents have tallied 258 power play tries (3rd in professional hockey) and have come away with 45 goals in those chances.

The man protecting the goal in this game is Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has been in net for 598 games throughout his pro hockey career. He has earned a win-loss mark of 370-178-39 and he has gotten the start in 588 games. The opposition has been able to score 1,467 goals versus Vasilevskiy in his NHL career and his goals against average per game is 2.49. Vasilevskiy has had 17,589 shot attempts against him and has gathered 16,122 saves. His save percentage sits at .917 for his 28,763 minutes played. From the beginning of his pro career to now, Vasilevskiy has earned 348 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is .592.

Montreal played really well in Game 3, both offensively and defensively. The Canadiens scored 3 goals out of the 29 shots on goal they attempted. They had 4 power play chances in this one but weren't able to put one in the back of the net.

The Canadiens have accumulated 223 goals at even strength and 56 goals (7th in the NHL) while on the power play. Montreal has put up 2,156 shots (24th in the league) and has a shooting percentage of 12.94%, while allowing the opposition 2,283 shots. During this campaign, the Montreal Canadiens have notched a total of 279 goals, 106 points, in addition to a points percentage of .646. They have allowed 251 goals to be scored by of a combination of 197 goals at even strength and 54 goals while they were shorthanded. They have a tally of 242 power play chances and they have accumulated a power play percentage of 23.14%. They have accumulated a penalty kill rate of 78.23% on their oppositions 248 chances on the power play, and their save percentage currently comes in at 89.0%.

Across the rink you will find Jakub Dobes patrolling the crease. Dobes has accrued a lifetime record of 36-14-7 and has been in goal for 59 contests. Dobes' percentage of quality starts comes out to 61.4% and he has 35 quality starting assignments in his pro career. He has a tally of 1,470 stops out of 1,627 shots attempted, giving him a save percentage of .904. Teams are averaging 2.75 goals per game and he has given up 157 goals altogether. He got the starting nod in 57 games and has played for a total of 953 minutes.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-115)

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