Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers Prediction, 10/1/2026 NHL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers

Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026

Location: Madison Square Garden in New York, NY

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: Lightning (-135) Rangers (+120)

The New York Rangers (34-39-9 last season) will play the Tampa Bay Lightning (50-26-6 last year) at Madison Square Garden on Thursday. The line on this matchup has the Lightning at -135 and the Rangers are sitting at +120. The over/under is 6.

The Tampa Bay Lightning had a rough game after their 2-1 loss to the Canadiens in their previous outing. Tampa Bay accounted for 4 penalty minutes in this contest. The Lightning didn't have their best offensive outing in the loss. They also had 3 power play attempts and were able to net 1 goal. For the game, they tallied a score on 1 out of the 29 shots they tried.

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At even strength, the Lightning let the opposition score 184 goals while having 235. Tampa Bay Lightning opponents had 258 power play tries (3rd in professional hockey) and earned 45 goals in those attempts. Regarding scoring goals, the Tampa Bay Lightning earned 286 goals (4th in the NHL) last season and gave up 229. Tampa Bay tried 2,305 shots and held a shot percentage of 12.4%. For last year, they earned 106 points and their points percentage was .646. The Lightning had 2,188 shots taken against them and earned a save percentage of .895. Tampa Bay had 246 power play opportunities and notched 51 goals during those chances, giving them a rate of 20.73%.

The man protecting the goal in this game is Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy has been in goal for 598 games throughout his NHL career. He has earned a record of 370-178-39 and he has started in 588 games. Opponents have been able to score 1,467 goals versus Vasilevskiy in his professional career and his goals against average is 2.49. Vasilevskiy has had 17,589 shots taken against him and has recorded 16,122 saves. His save percentage currently is .917 during his 28,763 minutes guarding the cage. From the beginning of his pro career to now, Vasilevskiy has accounted for 348 quality starts and his quality starts percentage is .592.

Their last time out, New York went up against the Bruins in a game where the Rangers ended up losing by a mark of 3-0. They had 1 chance on the power play in this one but weren't able to score a goal. The Rangers recorded 0 goals out of the 24 shots on goal they pursued.

The Rangers had 182 goals at even strength and 53 goals (13th in the league) while on the power play. New York took 2,066 shots (31st in the NHL) and earned a shot percentage of 11.37%, while allowing the opposition 2,363 shots. Last season, the New York Rangers had a total of 235 goals, 77 points, in addition to a points percentage of .470. They granted a total of 249 goals to be scored by of a combination of 199 goals at even strength and 50 goals while they had less men on the ice. They earned 215 chances on the power play and they have a power play percentage of 24.65%. They recorded a penalty kill percentage of 79.92% on their opponent's 249 power play opportunities, and their save percentage was 89.5%.

Across the ice you are going to see Igor Shesterkin in the crease. Shesterkin has earned a career mark of 187-107-28 and has participated in 325 contests. Shesterkin's quality start rate is 62.8% and he has 201 quality starts in his hockey career. He has recorded 8,738 saves out of the 9,534 shots attempted, giving him a save percentage of .917. The opposition is averaging 2.49 goals per contest and he has conceded 796 goals altogether. He has made the start in 320 games and has played 14,648 mins.

Who will win tonight's NHL game against the spread or moneyline?

Josh's Pick: Take Tampa Bay (-135)

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