Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov Pick, 09/06/2025 Predictions UFC Paris Odds
Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
UFC Paris
Accor Arena in Paris, France
Saturday, September 6, 2025
Andreas Gustafsson will battle Rinat Fakhretdinov at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 6, 2025. The odds have Gustafsson coming in at -120 while Fakhretdinov is at +100.
Maheshate "Bane" Maheshate will be looking to add a victory to his total of 12-2-0. The 34-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 6' 1". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 73". Rinat "Gladiator" Fakhretdinov measures 6' 0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 23-1-1. The 33-year-old reaches 74". With respect to significant strikes, Andreas Gustafsson connects on 5.83 per min and Rinat Fakhretdinov is connecting on 4.78 significant strikes per min. Maheshate connects on 76% of the significant strikes he attempts and Fakhretdinov is connecting on 52%. Regarding defense, "Bane" absorbs 2.79 significant strikes per minute and "Gladiator" absorbs 3.58. Maheshate also stops 45% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Fakhretdinov is able to thwart 53% of the shots thrown.
| UFC Paris | Andreas Gustafsson | Rinat Fakhretdinov |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -120 | +100 |
| Record | 12-2-0 | 23-1-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:40 | 12:39 |
| Height | 6' 1" | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Reach | 73" | 74" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.83 | 4.78 |
| Striking Accuracy | 76% | 52% |
Concerning wrestling, Andreas Gustafsson is the more effective grappler as he is able to score a takedown 6.43 times per 15 min. Maheshate is taking his opponents to the canvas on 58% of the times he tries and stuffing 85% of all takedown tries against him. Fakhretdinov is taking his opponents down on 34% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 91% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding sub attempts, Maheshate is the more experienced submission fighter by trying 0.7 subs per 3 rds while Fakhretdinov attempts 0.2 subs per 3 rds.
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In his previous fight, Andreas Gustafsson faced Khaos Williams and got a win for the night by unanimous decision in round 3. Williams landed 95 of 134 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Gustafsson finished this fight landing 151 of 185 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Williams ended up landing 39 of 74, which means his percentage was 52%. He ended up landing 29 of 63 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Gustafsson landed 76% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 98 of 128. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 67 of 95 aimed at the head. 66% of the significant strikes connected on by Williams and 27% of them landed by Gustafsson were done at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Rinat Fakhretdinov, he squared up with Carlos Leal and ended up getting the victory in the fight via unanimous decision in round 3. Leal connected on 87% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Fakhretdinov ended up connecting on 88% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Fakhretdinov ended up connecting on 49% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 109 of 222. He ended up connecting on 82 of 184 significant strikes directed at the head. Leal connected on 107 of 246 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 72 of 207 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes thrown in that contest, Leal ended up landing 146 of 292 while Fakhretdinov ended up landing 119 of 236 of all the strikes he threw.
Other bouts to watch
One more match to look forward to is when Sam Patterson squares up in the Octagon against Trey Waters. Patterson steps into the cage with a mark of 13-2-1. The 29-year-old weighs 170 lbs and measures in at 6' 3". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 78". Waters measures in at 6' 5" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 9-1-0. The 30-year-old has an arm span of 77". In the grappling category, Sam Patterson takes his opponents down 1.61 times per 3 rds and Trey Waters is averaging a takedown 0.44 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Patterson connects for an average of 3.17 strikes per min and landing 41% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Trey Waters, who tags his opponent on 44% of the strikes he has attempted and connects for an average of 6.43 per minute.
One more can't miss bout is when Robert Bryczek is set to enter the Octagon with Brad Tavares. Rongzhu holds a mark of 21-11-0. The 37-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and measures in at 6' 1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 74". Bryczek stands 6' 0" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 17-6-0. The 35-year-old stretches 75". Concerning grappling, Brad Tavares deflects 81% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedowns on 26% of the times he tries. Bryczek is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of his tries and is able to curb 85% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Rongzhu takes 3.28 strikes per min while he deals 3.42 strikes/min. Bryczek, at the same time, is absorbing 4.47 strikes/min and is dealing 2.13 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Rinat Fakhretdinov (+100)
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