Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus Pick, 09/13/2025 Predictions UFC Noche 3 Odds
Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus
UFC Noche 3
Frost Bank Center in San Antonio
Saturday, September 13, 2025
Kelvin Gastelum will enter the Octagon with Dustin Stoltzfus at UFC Noche 3 on Saturday, September 13, 2025. The opener has Gastelum coming in at -250 while Stoltzfus is at +210.
Kelvin Gastelum walks into the Octagon with a mark of 20-10-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and stands 5'9". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 71". Dustin Stoltzfus stands in at 6'0" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 16-7-0. The 33-year-old stretches 75". Regarding significant strikes, Kelvin Gastelum connects on 3.67 per min while Dustin Stoltzfus lands 3.14 significant strikes per min. Gastelum lands 42% of the significant strikes he attempts and Stoltzfus is connecting on 45%. Regarding defending in the cage, Gastelum allows 3.49 significant strikes per min and Stoltzfus allows 3.14. Gastelum also curbs 57% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Stoltzfus is able to curb 47% of the strikes thrown his way.
| UFC Noche 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -250 | +210 |
| Record | 20-10-0 (1 NC) | 16-7-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:40 | 9:18 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'0" |
| Weight | 185 lbs | 185 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 75" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.67 | 3.14 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
Concerning grappling, Kelvin Gastelum is not as effective of a wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 1.05 times per 15 minutes. Gastelum is scoring a takedown on 34% of his attempts and is stuffing 58% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Stoltzfus is finishing his takedowns on 41% of the takedowns he tries and stopping 46% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Gastelum is less likely to go for the finish by trying 0.1 submissions per 3 rounds while Stoltzfus tries 1.3 submissions per 3 rds.
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In his last fight, Kelvin Gastelum fought Joe Pyfer and wound up walking away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Pyfer landed 58 of 115 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Gastelum ended the night having landed 34 of 100 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Pyfer ended up landing 57 of 114, which gave him a percentage of 50%. He finished the fight landing 44 of 99 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Gastelum landed 33% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 33 of 99. Out of those significant strikes, he was 13 of 69 pointed at the head. 89% of the significant strikes connected on by Pyfer and 96% of them landed by Gastelum were thrown at distance.
In the last fight for Dustin Stoltzfus, he battled Nursulton Ruziboev and wound up taking the loss via unanimous decision in round 3. Ruziboev connected on 68% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Stoltzfus ended up landing 90% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Stoltzfus connected on 56% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 21 of 37. He landed 5 of 19 significant strikes directed at the head. Ruziboev ended up connecting on 35 of 68 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 24 of 53 aimed at the head. Discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Ruziboev connected on 53 of 94 while Stoltzfus ended up landing 41 of 62 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Alexander Hernandez goes up against Diego Ferreira. Hernandez will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 17-8-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Ferreira stands 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 19-6-0. The 40-year-old has a reach of 74". In terms of takedowns, Alexander Hernandez takes his opponents to the canvas 1.20 times per 3 rds while Diego Ferreira is averaging a takedown 0.86 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Hernandez connects on 4.36 strikes/min and landing 40% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Diego Ferreira, who is connecting on 40% of his attempted strikes and is connecting on 4.82 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Dusko Todorovic is set to take on Jose Medina. Medina steps into the Octagon holding a record of 11-5-0. The 34-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74". Todorovic comes in at 6'1" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 12-6-0. The 31-year-old stretches 74". In the category of takedowns, Jose Medina is able to thwart 31% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedown attempts on 33% of the times he tries. Todorovic is taking his opponents down on 17% of the tries he takes and stops 42% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Medina is absorbing 5.25 strikes per minute while he is connecting on 2.18 per min. Todorovic, in contrast, takes 4.53 strikes per minute and is connecting on 4.79 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Dustin Stoltzfus (+210)
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