Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita Pick, 10/24/2026 Predictions UFC 333 Odds
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita
UFC 333
Eithad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Aaron Pico will battle Losene Keita at UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, 2026. The opening odds have Pico coming in at -125 while Keita is coming in at +107.
Aaron Pico steps into the Octagon with a mark of 14-5-0. The 30-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Losene "Black Panther" Keita stands in at 5'9" and will fight at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 17-2-0. The 28-year-old extends his reach 72". With respect to significant strikes, Aaron Pico is connecting on 6.16 per min and Losene Keita connects on 3.91 significant strikes per minute. Pico is connecting on 53% of the significant strikes he throws while Keita is landing 46%. In terms of the fighter's defense, Pico takes 3.11 significant strikes per minute and "Black Panther" absorbs 3.97. Pico also defends against 45% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Keita is able to thwart 64% of the strikes thrown his way.
| UFC 333 | Aaron Pico | Losene Keita |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -125 | +107 |
| Record | 14-5-0 | 17-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 9:11 | 8:57 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 72" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.16 | 3.91 |
| Striking Accuracy | 53% | 46% |
When it comes to grappling, Aaron Pico is the more productive grappler as he is averaging a takedown 6.54 times per 15 minutes. Pico is getting his opponent to the mat on 50% of his tries and is defending 10% of all takedown attempts. Keita is finishing his takedowns on 10% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 90% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Pico is not as skilled of a technician by going for 0.3 submissions per 3 rounds while Keita looks to get 0.8 submissions per 15 min.
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In his last bout, Aaron Pico squared up with Patricio Pitbull and wound up getting the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Pitbull ended up landing 49 of 88 total strikes that he let go. Pico walked away from this fight having landed 104 of 185 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Pitbull ended up landing 49 of 88, which gave him a rate of 55%. He ended up landing 28 of 60 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Pico ended up landing 55% of his significant strikes by connecting on 100 of 181. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 79 of 156 aimed at the head. 75% of the significant strikes connected on by Pitbull and 90% of them landed by Pico were thrown at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Losene Keita, he squared up with Muhammad Naimov and wound up getting the win by a punch to the head in round 1. Naimov ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Keita connected on 55% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Keita connected on 60% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 18 of 30. He ended up landing 16 of 27 significant strikes directed at the head. Naimov ended up landing 4 of 24 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 2 of 21 directed at the head. Relating to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Naimov landed 4 of 24 while Keita ended up landing 19 of 31 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other bouts to watch out for
One more match to look forward to is when Azamat Murzakanov enters the Octagon against Dominick Reyes. Murzakanov will be looking to add a victory to his total of 16-1-0. The 37-year-old is weighing in at 205 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter stretches 71". Reyes stands in at 6'4" and is weighing in at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a career mark of 16-5-0. The 36-year-old has an arm span of 77". In terms of takedowns, Azamat Murzakanov takes his opponents down 0.68 times per 15 minutes while Dominick Reyes scores a takedown 0.25 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Murzakanov is landing 4.40 strikes/min and lands 56% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Dominick Reyes, who connects on 53% of the strikes he has attempted and lands 4.99 per minute.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is set to face off with Nikita Krylov. Krylov will be looking to add a win to his record of 31-12-0. The 34-year-old tips the scales at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Rakhman Yakhyaev stands in at 6'2" and weighs 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 10-0-0. The 25-year-old extends his reach 78". When it comes to takedowns, Nikita Krylov is able to thwart 53% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedowns on 38% of his attempts. Rakhman Yakhyaev is finishing his takedown tries on 75% of the tries he takes and curbs 90% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Krylov is absorbing 2.75 strikes per min while he deals 4.38 strikes/min. Rakhman Yakhyaev, at the same time, absorbs 2.22 strikes per min and dishes out 8.64 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Aaron Pico (-125)
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