Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun Pick, 10/24/2026 Predictions UFC 333 Odds
Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun
UFC 333
Eithad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Abubakar Vagaev will battle Jacob Malkoun at UFC 333 on Saturday, October 24, 2026. The line has Vagaev coming in at -165 while Malkoun is coming in at +140.
Abubakar Vagaev steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 25-4-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and measures in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 73". Jacob "Mamba" Malkoun stands 5'9" and weighs 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 10-3-0. The 31-year-old has an arm span of 73". In terms of significant strikes, Abubakar Vagaev lands 1.80 per minute while Jacob Malkoun connects on 4.23 significant strikes per minute. Vagaev lands 38% of the significant strikes he attempts and Malkoun is connecting on 56%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, Vagaev absorbs 2.20 significant strikes per min and "Mamba" takes 2.33. Vagaev also defends 60% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Malkoun is able to deflect 55% of them.
| UFC 333 | Abubakar Vagaev | Jacob Malkoun |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -165 | +140 |
| Record | 25-4-0 | 10-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:00 | 11:08 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 185 lbs |
| Reach | 73" | 73" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 1.80 | 4.23 |
| Striking Accuracy | 38% | 56% |
Concerning takedowns, Abubakar Vagaev is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 4.00 times per 3 rds. Vagaev is taking his opponents to the canvas on 40% of his tries and defending 71% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Malkoun is getting his opponent to the mat on 42% of the takedowns he tries and defending 55% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Vagaev is the more experienced submission fighter by trying 1.1 finishes per 3 rounds while Malkoun attempts 0.8 finishes per 15 min.
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The last time he fought, Abubakar Vagaev fought Saygid Izagakhmaev and took home the win by unanimous decision in round 3. Izagakhmaev landed 73 of 124 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Vagaev walked away from this fight having landed 91 of 138 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Izagakhmaev landed 33 of 83, which gave him a rate of 39%. He landed 16 of 63 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Vagaev ended up landing 38% of his significant strikes by landing 27 of 70. Of all the significant strikes, he was 16 of 52 to the head. 69% of the significant strikes landed by Izagakhmaev and 66% of them connected on by Vagaev were thrown at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Jacob Malkoun, he went up against Gerald Meerschaert and got a win for the night by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Meerschaert ended up connecting on 96% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Malkoun landed 100% of his significant strikes at distance. Malkoun landed 43% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 36 of 82. He connected on 30 of 74 significant strikes aimed at the head. Meerschaert ended up connecting on 32 of 76 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 23 of 66 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes attempted in that fight, Meerschaert ended up connecting on 53 of 100 and Malkoun was 54 of 103 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights to watch out for
Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Bolaji Oki squares up with Daniel Santos. Oki looks to add a win to his total of 10-4-0. The 30-year-old records a weight of 145 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 73". Santos stands 5'7" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 14-3-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 67". In the grappling category, Bolaji Oki gets a takedown 1.02 times per 3 rds and Daniel Santos scores a takedown 2.60 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Oki connects on 6.42 strikes per min and is landing 45% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Daniel Santos, who is landing 40% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 5.15 per min.
One more can't miss bout is when Noah Gugnon is set to face off with Kody Steele. Steele will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 8-1-0. The 31-year-old weighs 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Gugnon measures 5'11" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 10-2-0. The 26-year-old extends his reach 71". In terms of grappling, Kody Steele is stopping 90% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedown tries on 25% of his tries. Gugnon is taking his opponents down on 10% of the attempts he tries and is able to defend against 10% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Concerning striking, Steele is taking 6.20 strikes/minute and he is dishing out 3.85 strikes/min. Gugnon, in contrast, absorbs 4.44 strikes/min and deals 3.70 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Jacob Malkoun (+140)
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