Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier Pick, 07/19/2025 Predictions UFC 318 Odds
Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier
UFC 318
Smoothie King Center in New Orleans
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Max Holloway will battle Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, 2025. The odds have Holloway priced at -125 while Poirier is at +103.
Max "Blessed" Holloway walks into the cage holding a record of 26-8-0. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 145 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 69". Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier comes in at 5'9" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 30-9-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old has an arm span of 72". Concerning significant strikes, Max Holloway is connecting on 7.16 per minute while Dustin Poirier is connecting on 5.30 significant strikes per minute. Holloway connects on 47% of the significant strikes he tries and Poirier connects on 50%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Blessed" takes 4.76 significant strikes per min and "The Diamond" takes 4.33. Holloway also deflects 59% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Poirier defends against 52% of them.
| UFC 318 | Max Holloway | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -125 | +103 |
| Record | 26-8-0 | 30-9-0 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 16:05 | 10:17 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 72" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.16 | 5.30 |
| Striking Accuracy | 47% | 50% |
Regarding grappling, Max Holloway is the not as competent as a grappler as he is averaging a takedown 0.25 times per 15 minutes. Holloway is getting his opponent to the mat on 53% of his tries and is stopping 83% of all takedown attempts. Poirier is scoring a takedown on 36% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 64% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. When it comes to going for the sub, Holloway is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by attempting 0.3 finishes per 3 rds while Poirier looks to get 1.3 finishes per 15 minutes.
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In his last bout, Max Holloway fought Ilia Topuria and walked away in defeat by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Topuria ended up landing 78 of 147 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Holloway walked away from this fight having landed 84 of 209 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Topuria landed 75 of 144, giving him a percentage of 52%. He ended up landing 49 of 114 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Holloway landed 38% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 79 of 204. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 47 of 151 to the head. 94% of the significant strikes landed by Topuria and 100% of them connected on by Holloway were tallied at a distance.
In the last fight for Dustin Poirier, he fought Islam Makhachev and wound up taking the loss via d'arce choke in round 5. Makhachev landed 80% of his significant strikes at distance while Poirier ended up connecting on 68% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Poirier ended up landing 40% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 74 of 183. He connected on 53 of 159 significant strikes to the head. Makhachev ended up connecting on 88 of 156 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 81 of 148 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he threw in that fight, Makhachev connected on 147 of 222 while Poirier landed 104 of 218 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights on the card to watch out for
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Paulo Costa faces off against Roman Kopylov. Costa holds a career record of 14-4-0. The 34-year-old steps on the scale at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Kopylov stands 6'0" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 14-3-0. The 34-year-old has a wingspan of 75". When it comes to grappling, Paulo Costa scores a takedown 0.36 times per 15 minutes and Roman Kopylov is averaging a takedown 1.17 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Costa is landing 6.22 strikes per min and connects on 58% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Roman Kopylov, who is landing 50% of his attempted strikes and connects on 4.96 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Daniel Rodriguez is set to enter the Octagon with Kevin Holland. Holland will be looking to add a win to his career record of 28-13-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and stands 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 81". Rodriguez comes in at 6'1" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 19-5-0. The 38-year-old reaches 74". Concerning wrestling, Kevin Holland is thwarting 55% of the takedowns his opponents try and is getting his opponent to the mat on 39% of his attempts. Rodriguez is taking his opponents down on 54% of his tries and is able to stop 63% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Holland absorbs 3.11 strikes/min and he is landing 4.24 per minute. Rodriguez, on the other hand, takes 5.39 strikes per minute and is landing 7.39 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Max Holloway (-125)
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