Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig Pick, 09/06/2025 Predictions UFC Paris Odds

Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig

UFC Paris

Accor Arena in Paris, France

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Modestas Bukauskas will battle Paul Craig at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 6, 2025. The moneyline has Bukauskas at -350 while Craig is at +285.

Sumudaerji "The Baltic Gladiator" Sumudaerji looks to add a victory to his career record of 18-6-0. The 31-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and stands in at 6' 3". The switch fighter extends his reach 78". Paul "Bearjew" Craig stands in at 6' 3" and weighs 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 17-9-1 (1 NC). The 37-year-old stretches 76". When talking about significant strikes, Modestas Bukauskas lands 3.26 per minute and Paul Craig lands 2.54 significant strikes per min. Sumudaerji is landing 42% of the significant strikes he attempts while Craig is landing 45%. When it comes to defending themselves, "The Baltic Gladiator" absorbs 4.07 significant strikes per minute and "Bearjew" allows 3.00. Sumudaerji also stops 51% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Craig curbs 43% of the shots thrown in his direction.

Concerning grappling, Modestas Bukauskas is the lesser skilled wrestler as he gets a takedown 0.31 times per 15 min. Sumudaerji is taking his opponents to the canvas on 66% of the times he tries and defending 77% of all takedown tries against him. Craig is taking his opponents to the canvas on 19% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 35% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding sub attempts, Sumudaerji is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.2 finishes per 3 rounds while Craig goes for 1.4 finishes per 15 minutes.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Modestas Bukauskas fought Ion Cutelaba and wound up taking home the victory by split decision in round 3. Cutelaba ended up landing 121 of 194 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Bukauskas finished this fight landing 52 of 100 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Cutelaba landed 58 of 130, giving him a percentage of 44%. He finished the fight landing 18 of 74 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Bukauskas ended up landing 47% of his significant strikes by landing 44 of 92. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 37 of 85 aimed at the head. 81% of the significant strikes landed by Cutelaba and 95% of them landed by Bukauskas were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Paul Craig, he went up against Rodolfo Bellato and the fight ended in a no contest by an illegal upkick by Craig in round 1. Bellato ended up landing 90% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Craig connected on 82% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Craig ended up connecting on 62% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 17 of 27. He landed 7 of 16 significant strikes directed at the head. Bellato ended up landing 10 of 20 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 2 of 11 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes attempted in that fight, Bellato connected on 16 of 27 and Craig ended up landing 40 of 52 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Oumar Sy goes up against Brendson Ribeiro. Sy comes into this fight with a record of 11-1-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 205 lbs and stands in at 6' 4". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 83". Ribeiro measures in at 6' 3" and tips the scales at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 17-8-0 (1 NC). The 28-year-old has a reach of 81". In the grappling category, Oumar Sy scores a takedown 2.22 times per 15 minutes and Brendson Ribeiro scores a takedown 0.99 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Sy connects on 3.68 strikes per min and is landing 50% of his attempted strikes. On the other side we have Brendson Ribeiro, who tags his opponent on 42% of the strikes he has tried and is connecting on 3.26 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Rinat Fakhretdinov is set to encounter Andreas Gustafsson. Maheshate will be looking to add a victory to his total of 12-2-0. The 34-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 6' 1". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 73". Fakhretdinov measures 6' 0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 23-1-1. The 33-year-old reaches 74". In terms of grappling, Andreas Gustafsson deflects 85% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is taking his opponents to the mat on 58% of his tries. Fakhretdinov is finishing his takedowns on 34% of his tries and is able to deflect 91% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Maheshate is absorbing 2.79 strikes/minute while he connects on 5.83 per min. Fakhretdinov, on the contrary, takes 3.58 strikes per minute and is connecting on 4.78 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Paul Craig (+285)

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