Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere Pick, 07/12/2025 Predictions UFC Nashville Odds

Nate Landwehr vs Morgan Charriere

UFC Nashville

Bridgestone Arena in Nashville

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Nate Landwehr will enter the Octagon with Morgan Charriere at UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, 2025. The odds have Landwehr at +200 while Charriere is at -240.

Nate "The Train" Landwehr looks to add a victory to his record of 18-6-0. The 37-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Morgan "The Last Pirate" Charriere measures in at 5'8" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 20-11-1. The 29-year-old has an arm span of 69". Regarding significant strikes, Nate Landwehr connects on 5.59 per min while Morgan Charriere connects on 3.46 significant strikes per min. Landwehr lands 46% of the significant strikes he tries while Charriere is landing 49%. Regarding defending in the cage, "The Train" absorbs 5.77 significant strikes per min while "The Last Pirate" absorbs 4.15. Landwehr also curbs 52% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Charriere defends against 51% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

Regarding takedowns, Nate Landwehr is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.85 times per 15 minutes. Landwehr is getting his opponent to the mat on 41% of his tries and defending 74% of all takedown attempts. Charriere is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of his takedown tries and is stopping 83% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding subbing the opposition, Landwehr is the more capable of the two fighters by going for 0.8 submissions per 15 min while Charriere tries 0.4 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his last bout, Nate Landwehr went up against Dooho Choi and ended up losing the fight via elbows to the head in round 3. Choi landed 114 of 157 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Landwehr finished this fight landing 32 of 77 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Choi ended up landing 78 of 116 , giving him a percentage of 67%. He finished the fight landing 61 of 98 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Landwehr ended up landing 37% of his significant strikes by sticking 25 of 67 . Out of those significant strikes, he was 13 of 47 pointed at the head. 79% of the significant strikes landed by Choi and 60% of them connected on by Landwehr were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Morgan Charriere, he battled Nathaniel Wood and wound up losing the fight via unanimous decision in round 3. Wood ended up connecting on 86% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Charriere ended up connecting on 88% of his significant strikes at distance. Charriere landed 44% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 42 of 94 . He connected on 21 of 64 significant strikes aimed at the head. Wood ended up landing 72 of 119 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 42 of 80 directed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Wood ended up connecting on 89 of 136 while Charriere ended up connecting on 69 of 125 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Vitor Petrino takes on Austen Lane. Petrino steps into the Octagon holding a record of 11-2-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 77". Lane stands 6'6" and is weighing in at 245 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 13-6-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old has a wingspan of 80". Regarding grappling, Vitor Petrino gets a takedown 3.24 times per 15 minutes and Austen Lane takes his opponents to the canvas 1.70 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Petrino is connecting on 2.83 strikes/minute and lands 45% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Austen Lane, who connects on 50% of his attempted strikes and is connecting on 2.98 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Tuco Tokkos is set to clash with Junior Tafa. Tafa will be looking to add a victory to his total of 6-3-0. The 28-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Tokkos stands 6'4" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 10-5-0. The 35-year-old reaches 76". Concerning wrestling, Junior Tafa is able to curb 77% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedowns on 10% of his attempts. Tokkos is taking his opponents down on 40% of the attempts he tries and prevents 33% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Tafa is taking 2.84 strikes/minute and he deals 3.36 strikes per min. Tokkos, in contrast, takes 4.99 strikes per minute and dishes out 2.51 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Morgan Charriere (-240)

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