Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima Pick, 06/28/2025 Predictions UFC 317 Odds

Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima

UFC 317

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Payton Talbott will take on Felipe Lima at UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, 2025. The opening line has Talbott coming in at +165 while Lima is at -195.

Payton Talbott walks into the cage with a mark of 9-1-0. The 26-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 70". Felipe "Jungle Boy" Lima stands in at 5'6" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 14-1-0. The 27-year-old reaches 68". With respect to significant strikes, Payton Talbott is connecting on 6.73 per minute and Felipe Lima connects on 3.50 significant strikes per min. Talbott is connecting on 55% of the significant strikes he attempts and Lima is connecting on 45%. In terms of the fighter's defense, Talbott allows 3.75 significant strikes per min while "Jungle Boy" absorbs 2.32. Talbott also stops 44% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Lima is able to stop 72% of the shots thrown.

Regarding grappling, Payton Talbott is the not as competent as a grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.32 times per 3 rds. Talbott is scoring a takedown on 33% of his attempts and defending 75% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Lima is taking his opponents to the canvas on 42% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 83% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. In terms of submission attempts, Talbott is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.3 finishes per 15 min while Lima goes for 1.1 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his previous bout, Payton Talbott squared up with Raoni Barcelos and ended up walking away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Barcelos ended up landing 91 of 115 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Talbott ended the night having landed 59 of 95 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Barcelos landed 62 of 85, giving him a percentage of 72%. He finished the fight landing 59 of 81 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Talbott ended up landing 58% of his significant strikes by connecting on 49 of 84. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 39 of 74 aimed at the head. 29% of the significant strikes connected on by Barcelos and 75% of them connected on by Talbott were thrown at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Felipe Lima, he fought Miles Johns and took home the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Johns ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Lima connected on 94% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Lima ended up connecting on 41% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 55 of 134. He ended up connecting on 43 of 112 significant strikes directed at the head. Johns ended up connecting on 31 of 137 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 21 of 122 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes thrown, Johns ended up connecting on 35 of 143 while Lima landed 60 of 140 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Jack Hermansson faces off against Gregory Rodrigues. Hermansson looks to add a victory to his record of 24-8-0. The 37-year-old is weighing in at 185 lbs and stands 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 77". Rodrigues measures 6'3" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 16-6-0. The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 75". In terms of takedowns, Jack Hermansson gets his opposition to the mat 1.53 times per 15 minutes and Gregory Rodrigues is averaging a takedown 2.31 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Hermansson lands 5.09 strikes/min and landing 44% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Gregory Rodrigues, who lands 53% of the strikes he has tried and connects for an average of 5.60 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Jose Delgado is set to clash with Hyder Amil. Amil will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 11-0-0. The 35-year-old is fighting at 145 lbs and measures 5'9". The switch fighter extends his reach 70". Delgado measures 5'11" and weighs 145 lbs. The switch fighter holds a career mark of 9-1-0. The 27-year-old has an arm span of 73". In the category of takedowns, Hyder Amil thwarts 80% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents down on 22% of the times he tries. Delgado is taking his opponents down on 75% of his attempts and is able to curb 66% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Amil takes 4.00 strikes per minute and he connects on 6.84 strikes per min. Delgado, on the other hand, is absorbing 3.52 strikes/min and is landing 6.50 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Payton Talbott (+165)

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