Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne Pick, 08/09/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 109 Odds

by Tony Sink - 8/6/2025

Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne

UFC Vegas 109

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Steve Erceg will enter the Octagon against Ode Osbourne at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, 2025. The opening moneyline has Erceg at -600 while Osbourne is priced at +425.

Steve "Astroboy" Erceg has a record of 12-4-0. The 30-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and stands 5'8". The orthodox fighter reaches 68". Ode "The Jamaican Sensation" Osbourne stands 5'7" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 13-8-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 73". With respect to significant strikes, Steve Erceg lands 4.45 per minute and Ode Osbourne lands 3.20 significant strikes per minute. Erceg is connecting on 46% of the significant strikes he tries and Osbourne is landing 40%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "Astroboy" takes 4.03 significant strikes per minute and "The Jamaican Sensation" absorbs 3.82. Erceg also defends against 52% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Osbourne is able to thwart 46% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Steve Erceg predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 109	Steve Erceg	Ode Osbourne
Opening Odds	-600	+425
Record	12-4-0	13-8-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	14:55	6:46
Height	5'8"	5'7"
Weight	125 lbs	125 lbs
Reach	68"	73"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.45	3.20
Striking Accuracy	46%	40%

Concerning wrestling, Steve Erceg is the lesser skilled wrestler as he gets a takedown 0.84 times per 3 rounds. Erceg is finishing his takedown attempts on 26% of his tries and thwarting 63% of all takedowns attempted on him. Osbourne is taking his opponents to the mat on 28% of the takedowns he tries and is stuffing 65% of the attempts against him. When it comes to submissions, Erceg is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.3 submissions per 3 rds while Osbourne looks to get 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes.

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The last time he fought, Steve Erceg went up against Brandon Moreno and was defeated by unanimous decision in round 5. Moreno landed 95 of 182 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Erceg ended the night having landed 119 of 282 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Moreno ended up landing 89 of 176, giving him a percentage of 50%. He finished the fight landing 59 of 138 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Erceg ended up landing 41% of his significant strikes by landing 116 of 279. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 90 of 237 pointed at the head. 97% of the significant strikes landed by Moreno and 99% of them landed by Erceg were thrown at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Ode Osbourne, he battled Luis Gurule and ended up winning this fight via a punch to the head in round 2. Gurule landed 91% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Osbourne ended up connecting on 77% of his significant strikes at distance. Osbourne ended up landing 41% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 18 of 43. He ended up landing 11 of 33 significant strikes aimed at the head. Gurule ended up connecting on 12 of 34 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 3 of 13 directed at the head. In regard to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Gurule was 26 of 49 and Osbourne connected on 22 of 50 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to watch out for

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Andre Fili enters the Octagon with Christian Rodriguez. Fili walks into the Octagon with a record of 24-12-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter stretches 74". Rodriguez stands in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 12-3-0. The 27-year-old has a reach of 71". In the grappling category, Andre Fili gets his opposition to the mat 2.17 times per 3 rounds and Christian Rodriguez scores a takedown 1.84 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Fili is connecting on 3.84 strikes per min and is connecting on 37% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Christian Rodriguez, who tags his opponent on 50% of the strikes he has tried and is landing 3.63 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Jean Matsumoto is set to face off against Miles Johns. Johns walks into the cage holding a record of 15-3-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 66". Matsumoto measures in at 5'6" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 16-1-0. The 25-year-old has a wingspan of 68". In terms of grappling, Miles Johns is stopping 81% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 20% of his attempts. Matsumoto is taking his opponents down on 47% of his tries and thwarts 57% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Johns takes 2.65 strikes per minute while he deals 3.16 per min. Matsumoto, on the other hand, is taking 5.40 strikes per min and lands 5.18 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ode Osbourne (+425)

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Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne Pick, 08/09/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 109 Odds

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