Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III Pick, 10/10/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 122 Odds
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III
UFC Vegas 122
Meta APEX in Las Vegas
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Andre Fili will battle Kai Kamaka III at UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, October 3, 2026. The moneyline has Fili priced at -133 while III is priced at +114.
Andre "Touchy" Fili steps into the cage holding a mark of 25-14-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Kai "Da Fighting Hawaiian" Kamaka III comes in at 5'7" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 18-8-1. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 69". Regarding significant strikes, Andre Fili lands 3.89 per minute and Kai Kamaka III is connecting on 5.49 significant strikes per minute. Fili is connecting on 37% of the significant strikes he tries while Kamaka III connects on 59%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Touchy" takes 4.55 significant strikes per min and "Da Fighting Hawaiian" takes 6.03. Fili also stops 49% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Kamaka III is able to stop 55% of them.
| UFC Vegas 122 | Andre Fili | Kai Kamaka III |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -133 | +114 |
| Record | 25-14-0 (1 NC) | 18-8-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:41 | 12:05 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 74" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.89 | 5.49 |
| Striking Accuracy | 37% | 59% |
Concerning grappling, Andre Fili is the more apt wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 2.24 times per 15 minutes. Fili is getting his opponent to the mat on 46% of the times he tries and is defending 71% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Kamaka III is taking his opponents to the canvas on 53% of his takedown tries and is defending 55% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to subbing opponents, Fili is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 0.2 finishes per 15 min while Kamaka III looks to get 0.4 finishes per 3 rounds.
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In his last bout, Andre Fili squared up with Vinicius Oliveira and wound up walking away in defeat by way of elbows to the head in round 2. Oliveira landed 105 of 152 total strikes that he let go. Fili ended the night having landed 40 of 113 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Oliveira ended up landing 105 of 152, giving him a percentage of 69%. He landed 47 of 90 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Fili ended up landing 35% of his significant strikes by landing 40 of 113. Of all the significant strikes, he was 31 of 104 pointed at the head. 84% of the significant strikes landed by Oliveira and 95% of them landed by Fili were tallied at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Kai Kamaka III, he faced off with Luke Riley and wound up losing the fight by punches to the head in round 1. Riley connected on 81% of his significant strikes at distance while III ended up connecting on 100% of his significant strikes at distance. III connected on 56% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 23 of 41. He connected on 9 of 23 significant strikes directed at the head. Riley connected on 43 of 67 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he landed 30 of 53 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that fight, Riley ended up landing 43 of 67 while III ended up landing 23 of 41 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other bouts on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Malcolm Wellmaker enters the Octagon against Otari Tanzilovi. Wellmaker has a career mark of 10-2-0. The 32-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and stands 5'10". The switch fighter has an arm span of 71". Tanzilovi measures in at 5'9" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 10-2-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 70". In the grappling category, Malcolm Wellmaker scores a takedown 0.60 times per 15 min and Otari Tanzilovi is able to score a takedown 4.50 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Wellmaker lands 4.58 strikes/minute and landing 55% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Otari Tanzilovi, who tags the opposition on 68% of the strikes that he throws and lands an average of 4.20 per minute.
Another bout to watch is when Gerald Meerschaert is set to face off against Julius Walker. Walker steps into the Octagon holding a record of 7-3-0. The 27-year-old weighs 205 lbs and comes in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 78". Meerschaert stands 6'1" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage with a record of 37-22-0. The 38-year-old reaches 77". In the category of takedowns, Julius Walker is able to curb 85% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown tries on 38% of his tries. Meerschaert is finishing his takedowns on 29% of the tries he takes and is able to thwart 40% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With regard to striking, Walker takes 4.18 strikes per min while he connects on 3.72 strikes/min. Meerschaert, notwithstanding, is absorbing 3.44 strikes per minute and lands 2.95 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Andre Fili (-133)
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