Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 5/8/2026

Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz

UFC Vegas 117

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Ateba Gautier will take on Ozzy Diaz at UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The opening moneyline has Gautier coming in at -1800 while Diaz is at +900.

Ateba "The Storm" Gautier has a mark of 10-1-0. The 24-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands 6'4". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 81". Ozzy Diaz comes in at 6'4" and weighs 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 10-3-0. The 35-year-old has a wingspan of 79". When talking about significant strikes, Ateba Gautier connects on 4.44 per min and Ozzy Diaz connects on 6.44 significant strikes per minute. Gautier lands 48% of the significant strikes he tries while Diaz is connecting on 50%. Regarding defending in the cage, "The Storm" takes 2.93 significant strikes per min and Diaz takes 7.23. Gautier also defends against 52% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Diaz thwarts 59% of them.

ufc picks Ateba Gautier predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 117	Ateba Gautier	Ozzy Diaz
Opening Odds	-1800	+900
Record	10-1-0	10-3-0
Average Fight Time	6:05	8:01
Height	6'4"	6'4"
Weight	185 lbs	185 lbs
Reach	81"	79"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.44	6.44
Striking Accuracy	48%	50%

When it comes to grappling, Ateba Gautier is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.49 times per 15 minutes. Gautier is finishing his takedown attempts on 75% of his attempts and stuffing 92% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Diaz is taking his opponents to the canvas on 15% of his takedown attempts and defending 50% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Gautier is the more capable fighter by attempting 0.8 submissions per 3 rds while Diaz attempts 0.4 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his previous bout, Ateba Gautier faced Andrey Pulyaev and ended up winning this fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Pulyaev ended up landing 59 of 123 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Gautier ended the night having landed 34 of 112 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Pulyaev landed 59 of 123, which gave him a rate of 47%. He landed 34 of 83 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Gautier ended up landing 30% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 34 of 112. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 24 of 98 pointed at the head. 96% of the significant strikes connected on by Pulyaev and 88% of them landed by Gautier were tallied at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Ozzy Diaz, he went up against Djorden Santos and wound up taking home the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Santos connected on 99% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Diaz ended up landing 96% of his significant strikes at distance. Diaz ended up landing 51% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 135 of 261. He ended up landing 119 of 240 significant strikes aimed at the head. Santos ended up landing 131 of 345 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 115 of 323 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes thrown, Santos connected on 134 of 348 and Diaz connected on 136 of 262 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Joel Alvarez faces off against Yaroslav Amosov. Alvarez will be looking to add a win to his record of 23-3-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Amosov measures in at 6'0" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 29-1-0. The 32-year-old stretches 75". In the grappling category, Joel Alvarez is able to score a takedown 0.19 times per 15 min while Yaroslav Amosov is averaging a takedown 4.64 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Alvarez connects for an average of 4.78 strikes/minute and lands 55% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Yaroslav Amosov, who lands 47% of the strikes he has tried and connects for an average of 2.78 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Mateusz Rebecki is set to square up with Grant Dawson. Dawson walks into the Octagon with a mark of 23-3-1. The 32-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The switch fighter has an arm span of 72". Rebecki measures in at 5'7" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 20-4-0. The 33-year-old reaches 66". When it comes to takedowns, Grant Dawson prevents 57% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 39% of his attempts. Rebecki is taking his opponents down on 52% of his attempts and prevents 50% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Concerning striking, Dawson takes 2.13 strikes/minute and he is dealing 3.21 per minute. Rebecki, on the other side, is taking 4.69 strikes/min and deals 5.21 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Ozzy Diaz (+900)

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Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

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