Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura Pick, 09/26/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 121 Odds
Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura
UFC Vegas 121
Meta Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Brady Hiestand will face off against Rinya Nakamura at UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The line has Hiestand coming in at +269 while Nakamura is at -330.
Brady "Bam Bam" Hiestand holds a career record of 9-2-0. The 27-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 71". Rinya "Hybred" Nakamura stands 5'7" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 10-1-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 68". In the category of significant strikes, Brady Hiestand is connecting on 2.70 per min while Rinya Nakamura is landing 3.27 significant strikes per minute. Hiestand is landing 50% of the significant strikes he attempts and Nakamura connects on 52%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "Bam Bam" allows 3.75 significant strikes per minute and "Hybred" takes 1.72. Hiestand also deflects 51% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Nakamura is able to stop 63% of them.
| UFC Vegas 121 | Brady Hiestand | Rinya Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +269 | -330 |
| Record | 9-2-0 | 10-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 14:03 | 7:29 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 68" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.70 | 3.27 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50% | 52% |
Regarding grappling, Brady Hiestand is the more apt grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 4.80 times per 3 rounds. Hiestand is scoring a takedown on 46% of his attempts and thwarting 42% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Nakamura is taking his opponents down on 81% of his takedown tries and is stuffing 85% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Hiestand is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 1.1 subs per 15 minutes while Nakamura attempts 1.4 subs per 15 minutes.
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In his previous fight, Brady Hiestand faced Garrett Armfield and wound up getting the win by rear naked choke in round 3. Armfield landed 59 of 94 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Hiestand walked away from this fight having landed 42 of 76 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Armfield landed 49 of 83, giving him a percentage of 59%. He ended up landing 41 of 73 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Hiestand landed 44% of his significant strikes by landing 22 of 50. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 14 of 39 pointed at the head. 44% of the significant strikes landed by Armfield and 81% of them connected on by Hiestand were thrown at distance.
In the last fight for Rinya Nakamura, he squared up with Nathan Fletcher and wound up getting the victory by way of a kick to the body in round 1. Fletcher connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Nakamura connected on 66% of his significant strikes at distance. Nakamura ended up landing 63% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 12 of 19. He landed 6 of 13 significant strikes aimed at the head. Fletcher ended up landing 3 of 7 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 0 of 1 aimed at the head. Regarding total strikes that he threw in that fight, Fletcher ended up connecting on 3 of 7 while Nakamura ended up landing 12 of 19 total strikes.
Other fights to watch out for
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Rodolfo Bellato faces off against Christian Edwards. Bellato comes into this bout holding a record of 13-3-1 (1 NC). The 30-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 75". Edwards stands 6'5" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 8-5-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 78". When it comes to grappling, Rodolfo Bellato scores a takedown 1.38 times per 15 min and Christian Edwards takes his opponents down 0.90 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Bellato tags his opponents 5.37 strikes/minute and lands 60% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Christian Edwards, who tags his opponent on 50% of the strikes he has tried and connects for an average of 2.40 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Josiah Harrell is set to encounter Elves Brener. Brener looks to add a victory to his total of 16-6-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 72". Harrell comes in at 5'7" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 11-1-0. The 27-year-old reaches 68". Regarding takedowns, Elves Brener is able to defend against 76% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedowns on 16% of his attempts. Harrell is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the attempts he tries and prevents 15% of all takedown tries against him. With reference to striking, Brener is taking 5.86 strikes/min while he connects on 4.76 strikes per minute. Harrell, on the other hand, absorbs 10.94 strikes/minute and is dealing 2.32 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Brady Hiestand (+269)
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